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The triple burden of depopulation in Ukraine: examining perceptions of population decline

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  • Brienna Perelli-Harris
  • Yuliya Hilevych

Abstract

In February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine, leading to severe population loss as millions exited the country and casualties mounted. However, population decline in Ukraine had been occurring for decades due to the triple burden of depopulation: low fertility, high mortality and substantial emigration. Ukraine had also already experienced years of armed conflict and large-scale displacement after the Russian-backed separatist movement, which started in 2014. This study investigates perspectives on depopulation using online focus groups conducted in July 2021, seven months before the current invasion. We compared discussions in eastern Ukraine, including in rural villages, the IDP-receiving city of Mariupol, the large city of Kharkiv and occupied Donetsk. Participants observed that cities were growing at the expense of rural areas. The situation in Donetsk was bleak due to mass emigration, but some participants pointed to a recent increase in births. Overall, the participants acknowledged the triple burden of depopulation in Ukraine, and the consequences of population decline, such as a shrinking labour force and rapid ageing.

Suggested Citation

  • Brienna Perelli-Harris & Yuliya Hilevych, 2023. "The triple burden of depopulation in Ukraine: examining perceptions of population decline," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 21(1), pages 245-275.
    • Handle: RePEc:vid:yearbk:v:21:y:2023:i:1:oid:0x003e1c35
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Vlad Mykhnenko & Elliot Delahaye & Nigel Mehdi, 2022. "Understanding forced internal displacement in Ukraine: insights and lessons for today’s crises," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 38(3), pages 699-716.
    2. Brienna Perelli-Harris & Laura Bernardi, 2015. "Exploring social norms around cohabitation: The life course, individualization, and culture," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 33(25), pages 701-732.
    3. Brienna Perelli-Harris, 2008. "Ukraine: On the border between old and new in uncertain times," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 19(29), pages 1145-1178.
    4. Federico Benassi & Annalisa Busetta & Gerardo Gallo & Manuela Stranges, 2023. "Neighbourhood effects and determinants of population changes in Italy: A spatial perspective," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 21(1), pages 311-338.
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    1. Brienna Perelli-Harris & Theodore Gerber & Yuliya Hilevych, 2024. "Uncertainty and Fertility in Ukraine on the Eve of Russia’s Full-Scale Invasion: The Impact of Armed Conflict and Economic Crisis," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 40(1), pages 1-23, December.

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