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Estimates of Effective Guarantees and Tax Rates in the AFDC Program for the Post-OBRA Period

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  • Terra McKinnish
  • Seth Sanders
  • Jeffrey Smith

Abstract

We employ the model used by Fraker, Moffitt, and Wolf (1985) to estimate effective tax rates and guarantees in the Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) program for the years 1967-82 to produce comparable estimates for 1983-91. We compare this method of benefit prediction with other methods in the literature and clarify the interpretation of estimates generated using the Fraker, Moffitt, and Wolf model. We use our estimates for the period from 1983 to 1991 to examine how effective AFDC tax rates and guarantee levels have changed over time and relative to nominal, or official, program parameters.

Suggested Citation

  • Terra McKinnish & Seth Sanders & Jeffrey Smith, 1999. "Estimates of Effective Guarantees and Tax Rates in the AFDC Program for the Post-OBRA Period," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 34(2), pages 312-345.
  • Handle: RePEc:uwp:jhriss:v:34:y:1999:i:2:p:312-345
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    Cited by:

    1. Michelle Sheran Sylvester, 2007. "The Career and Family Choices of Women: A Dynamic Analysis of Labor Force Participation, Schooling, Marriage and Fertility Decisions," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 10(3), pages 367-399, July.
    2. Ozturk, Orgul & Chyi, hau, 2006. "The Effects of Single Mothers' Welfare Participation and Work Decisions on Children's Attainments," MPRA Paper 10110, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2008.
    3. Marianne P. Bitler & Jonah B. Gelbach & Hilary W. Hoynes, 2006. "What Mean Impacts Miss: Distributional Effects of Welfare Reform Experiments," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(4), pages 988-1012, September.
    4. Christopher A. Swann, 2005. "Welfare Reform When Recipients Are Forward-Looking," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 40(1).
    5. Hau Chyi, 2013. "The Effects of Single Mothers’Welfare Participation and Work Decisions on Children’s Attainments," WISE Working Papers 2013-10-14, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
    6. Marianne P. Bitler & Jonah B. Gelbach & Hilary W. Hoynes, 2006. "What Mean Impacts Miss: Distributional Effects of Welfare Reform Experiments," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(4), pages 988-1012, September.
    7. Robert A. Moffitt, 2003. "The Temporary Assistance for Needy Families Program," NBER Chapters,in: Means-Tested Transfer Programs in the United States, pages 291-364 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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