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Complexity and Sophistication

Author

Listed:
  • Leandro Carvalho
  • Dan Silverman

Abstract

Many financial situations present individuals with simple alternatives to solving complex problems. The value of such alternatives depends on whether individuals are sophisticated and know when they are better off opting out of complexity. To test complexity’s effects and evaluate sophistication, we randomized the complexity of portfolio problems and the offer of a simple alternative to portfolio choice. Under complexity, the less skilled opt out when the simple alternative is dominated, earning lower returns. To interpret these findings, we develop a novel method for estimating the structural parameters of a rational-inattention model. The structural estimates are consistent with substantial sophistication.

Suggested Citation

  • Leandro Carvalho & Dan Silverman, 2024. "Complexity and Sophistication," Journal of Political Economy Microeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 2(1), pages 43-76.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jpemic:doi:10.1086/727560
    DOI: 10.1086/727560
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    2. Christopher P. Chambers & Federico Echenique & Nicolas S. Lambert, 2021. "Recovering Preferences From Finite Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(4), pages 1633-1664, July.
    3. Caliari, Daniele, 2023. "Rationality is not consistency," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Economics of Change SP II 2023-304, WZB Berlin Social Science Center.
    4. Bartosz Maćkowiak & Filip Matějka & Mirko Wiederholt, 2023. "Rational Inattention: A Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 61(1), pages 226-273, March.
    5. Changkuk Im & John Rehbeck, 2021. "Non-rationalizable Individuals, Stochastic Rationalizability, and Sampling," Papers 2102.03436, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2021.
    6. Im, Changkuk & Rehbeck, John, 2022. "Non-rationalizable individuals and stochastic rationalizability," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    7. David M. Ramsey, 2020. "A Game Theoretic Model of Choosing a Valuable Good via a Short List Heuristic," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-20, February.
    8. Aluma Dembo & Shachar Kariv & Matthew Polisson & John Quah, 2021. "Ever since Allais," IFS Working Papers W21/15, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    9. Benjamin Enke & Cassidy Shubatt, 2023. "Quantifying Lottery Choice Complexity," CESifo Working Paper Series 10644, CESifo.
    10. Echenique, Federico & Imai, Taisuke & Saito, Kota, 2019. "Decision Making under Uncertainty: An Experimental Study in Market Settings," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 197, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    11. Erin T. Bronchetti & Judd B. Kessler & Ellen B. Magenheim & Dmitry Taubinsky & Eric Zwick, 2020. "Is Attention Produced Rationally?," Working Papers 2020-91, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    12. Mononen, Lasse, 2025. "On Preference for Simplicity and Probability Weighting," Center for Mathematical Economics Working Papers 748, Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University.
    13. Erin T. Bronchetti & Judd B. Kessler & Ellen B. Magenheim & Dmitry Taubinsky & Eric Zwick, 2023. "Is Attention Produced Optimally? Theory and Evidence From Experiments With Bandwidth Enhancements," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 91(2), pages 669-707, March.
    14. Abhijit Banerjee & Marcella Alsan & Emily Breza & Arun G. Chandrasekhar & Abhijit Chowdhury & Esther Duflo & Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham & Benjamin A. Olken, 2020. "Messages on COVID-19 Prevention in India Increased Symptoms Reporting and Adherence to Preventive Behaviors Among 25 Million Recipients with Similar Effects on Non-recipient Members of Their Communities," NBER Working Papers 27496, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • G02 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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