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Offsetting Behavior, Medical Breakthroughs, and Breakdowns

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  • Sam Peltzman

Abstract

Progress against mortality risk has contributed importantly to growth in the stock of human capital. This progress is occasionally accelerated by unexpected medical breakthroughs. However, sudden gains against one risk can induce offsetting increases in other risks. I examine this possibility empirically with data from three unexpected changes in mortality risk: the introduction of antibiotics, discovery of new treatments for heart disease, and the AIDS epidemic (an unexpected breakdown of progress). I find that offsetting responses can provide a unifying explanation for important features of data from these three different episodes. These features include increased noninfectious disease mortality in groups most benefited by antibiotics, a connection between heart disease gains and increased obesity, and declining external cause mortality risks in vulnerable groups in places with high AIDS incidence.

Suggested Citation

  • Sam Peltzman, 2011. "Offsetting Behavior, Medical Breakthroughs, and Breakdowns," Journal of Human Capital, University of Chicago Press, vol. 5(3), pages 302-341.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jhucap:doi:10.1086/662034
    DOI: 10.1086/662034
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    1. McClellan, Mark & Noguchi, Haruko, 1998. "Technological Change in Heart-Disease Treatment: Does High Tech Mean Low Value?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(2), pages 90-96, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Manuel Hoffmann & Roberto Mosquera & Adrian Chadi, 2019. "Vaccines at Work," TWI Research Paper Series 116, Thurgauer Wirtschaftsinstitut, Universität Konstanz.
    2. Grant Miller & Christine Valente, 2016. "Population Policy: Abortion and Modern Contraception Are Substitutes," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 53(4), pages 979-1009, August.
    3. Gilad Sorek, 2013. "Efficient Self-Protection and Progress in Curing-Technology," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2013-07, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    4. Sam Peltzman, 2014. "Socialized medicine and mortality," International Journal of Health Economics and Management, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 179-205, September.

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