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The Effect of Demand Uncertainty on Port Terminal Costs

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  • Ana Rodríguez-Álvarez
  • Beatriz Tovar
  • Alan Wall

Abstract

A recent survey found that 40 per cent of vessels arrive later than planned, so demand uncertainty is a salient feature of port terminal activity. Terminals facing greater demand uncertainty and that wish to cater for this will incur extra costs to avoid the risk that shipping companies replace them. We estimate a short-run cost function using data on three Spanish port terminals which includes demand uncertainty as a regressor. We find that demand uncertainty has a significant effect on costs and we quantify this. Not taking demand uncertainty into account may lead to port terminals' efficiency being underestimated. © 2011 LSE and the University of Bath

Suggested Citation

  • Ana Rodríguez-Álvarez & Beatriz Tovar & Alan Wall, 2011. "The Effect of Demand Uncertainty on Port Terminal Costs," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, vol. 45(2), pages 303-328, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpe:jtecpo:v:45:y:2011:i:2:p:303-328
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Fan, Lei & Wilson, William W. & Dahl, Bruce, 2015. "Risk analysis in port competition for containerized imports," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 245(3), pages 743-753.
    2. Tovar, Beatriz & Wall, Alan, 2015. "Can ports increase traffic while reducing inputs? Technical efficiency of Spanish Port Authorities using a directional distance function approach," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 128-140.
    3. Tovar, Beatriz & Wall, Alan, 2014. "The impact of demand uncertainty on port infrastructure costs: Useful information for regulators?," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 176-183.
    4. Fan, Lei & Wilson, William W. & Dahl, Bruce, 2012. "Congestion, port expansion and spatial competition for US container imports," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(6), pages 1121-1136.
    5. Chang, Víctor & Tovar, Beatriz, 2014. "Drivers explaining the inefficiency of Peruvian and Chilean ports terminals," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 190-203.
    6. Tovar, Beatriz & Hernández, Rubén & Rodríguez-Déniz, Héctor, 2015. "Container port competitiveness and connectivity: The Canary Islands main ports case," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 40-51.
    7. Marianne Fischman & Emeric Lendjel, 2012. "Maritime Ports And Inland Interconnections: A Transactional Analysis Of Container Barge Transport In France," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00741127, HAL.
    8. Marianne Fischman & Emeric Lendjel, 2012. "Maritime Ports And Inland Interconnections: A Transactional Analysis Of Container Barge Transport In France," Post-Print halshs-00741127, HAL.
    9. Pérez, Ivone & González, María Manuela & Trujillo, Lourdes, 2020. "Do specialisation and port size affect port efficiency? Evidence from cargo handling service in Spanish ports," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 234-249.
    10. Hidalgo, Soraya & Núñez-Sánchez, Ramón, 2012. "Estimating allocative efficiency in port authorities with demand uncertainty," MPRA Paper 38136, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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