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Dynamics of the Term Structure and Volatility of Shipping Freight Rates

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  • Amir H. Alizadeh
  • Nikos K. Nomikos

Abstract

This paper investigates the relationship between the dynamics of the term structure and time-varying volatility of shipping freight rates. Using a dataset covering the period from January 1992 to September 2007 and augmented EGARCH models, we find support for the argument that the volatility of freight rates is related to the shape of the term structure of the freight market. Furthermore, it is found that this relationship is asymmetric in the sense that when the freight market is in backwardation, volatility is higher compared to periods when the market is in contango. The results have important implications for freight risk analysis and management. © 2011 LSE and the University of Bath

Suggested Citation

  • Amir H. Alizadeh & Nikos K. Nomikos, 2011. "Dynamics of the Term Structure and Volatility of Shipping Freight Rates," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, vol. 45(1), pages 105-128, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:tpe:jtecpo:v:45:y:2011:i:1:p:105-128
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    Cited by:

    1. Alizadeh, Amir H. & Huang, Chih-Yueh & van Dellen, Stefan, 2015. "A regime switching approach for hedging tanker shipping freight rates," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 44-59.
    2. Mitroussi, K. & Abouarghoub, W. & Haider, J.J. & Pettit, S.J. & Tigka, N., 2016. "Performance drivers of shipping loans: An empirical investigation," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 171(P3), pages 438-452.
    3. Wessam M. T. Abouarghoub & Iris Biefang-Frisancho Mariscal, 2011. "Measuring level of risk exposure in tanker Shipping freight markets," International Journal of Business and Social Research, MIR Center for Socio-Economic Research, vol. 1(1), pages 20-44, December.
    4. Drobetz, Wolfgang & Haller, Rebekka & Meier, Iwan, 2016. "Cash flow sensitivities during normal and crisis times: Evidence from shipping," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 26-49.
    5. Xu, Jane Jing & Yip, Tsz Leung & Marlow, Peter B., 2011. "The dynamics between freight volatility and fleet size growth in dry bulk shipping markets," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(6), pages 983-991.

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