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Equilibrium contracts and boundedly rational expectations

Author

Listed:
  • Schumacher, Heiner

    (Department of Economics, KU Leuven)

  • Thysen, Heidi Christina

    (Department of Economics, London School of Economics)

Abstract

We study a principal-agent framework in which the agent forms beliefs about the principal's project based on a misspecified subjective model. She fits this model to the objective probability distribution to predict output under alternative actions. Misspecifications in the subjective model may lead to biased beliefs. However, under mild restrictions, the agent has correct beliefs on the equilibrium path so that the optimal contract is non-exploitative. This allows for a behavioral version of the informativeness principle: The optimal contract conditions on an additional variable only if it is informative about the action according to the agent's subjective model. We further characterize when misspecifications affect the optimal contract. One implication of this characterization is that the scope for belief biases depends on the agent's job, e.g., her position in the hierarchy.

Suggested Citation

  • Schumacher, Heiner & Thysen, Heidi Christina, 2022. "Equilibrium contracts and boundedly rational expectations," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 17(1), January.
  • Handle: RePEc:the:publsh:4231
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    Cited by:

    1. Spiegler, Ran, 2022. "On the behavioral consequences of reverse causality," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    2. Kai Barron & Tilman Fries, 2023. "Narrative Persuasion," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 469, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    3. Andreas Hefti & Shuo Liu & Armin Schmutzler, 2022. "Preferences, Confusion and Competition," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 132(645), pages 1852-1881.
    4. Canidio, Andrea & Karle, Heiko, 2022. "The focusing effect in negotiations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 197(C), pages 1-20.
    5. Matthias Fahn & Nicolas Klein, 2023. "Non-Common Priors, Incentives, and Promotions: The Role of Learning," Economics working papers 2023-06, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    6. de la Rosa, Leonidas Enrique & Lambertsen, Nikolaj Niebuhr, 2025. "Overconfidence and moral hazard without commitment," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    7. Gui, Zhengqing & Huang, Yangguang & Zhao, Xiaojian, 2024. "Financial fraud and investor awareness," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 219(C), pages 104-123.
    8. Carbajal, Juan Carlos & Nachbar, John, 2025. "Robust personal equilibrium effects in misspecified causal models," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D03 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • D86 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Economics of Contract Law

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