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An innovative regime switching model to forecast Taiwan tourism demand

Author

Listed:
  • Kun-Huang Huarng
  • Tiffany Hui-Kuang Yu
  • Francesc Solé Parellada

Abstract

The tourism industry has become a major part of economic development for many countries. These countries have greatly invested in tourism to attract more tourist arrivals. Hence, the need for more accurate forecasts of tourism demand is important. Various approaches have been applied to forecast tourism demand of different countries. However, tourism demands tend to be imprecise and their trends nonlinear. In addition, there may be drastic changes in the tourism demand time series. To properly handle these problems, this study proposes an innovative forecasting model to detect the regime switching properly and to apply fuzzy time-series model to forecast. The monthly tourist arrivals to Taiwan will be used as forecasting target. The analysis by the proposed model will be validated by the major events as well as previous studies.

Suggested Citation

  • Kun-Huang Huarng & Tiffany Hui-Kuang Yu & Francesc Solé Parellada, 2010. "An innovative regime switching model to forecast Taiwan tourism demand," The Service Industries Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(10), pages 1603-1612, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:servic:v:31:y:2010:i:10:p:1603-1612
    DOI: 10.1080/02642069.2010.485637
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Huarng, Kunhuang & Yu, Tiffany Hui-Kuang, 2006. "The application of neural networks to forecast fuzzy time series," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 363(2), pages 481-491.
    2. Witt, Stephen F. & Witt, Christine A., 1995. "Forecasting tourism demand: A review of empirical research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 447-475, September.
    3. Luiz Moutinho & K.-H. Huarng & Tiffany Yu & C.-Y. Chen, 2008. "Modeling and forecasting tourism demand: the case of flows from Mainland China to Taiwan," Service Business, Springer;Pan-Pacific Business Association, vol. 2(3), pages 219-232, September.
    4. Jane Bryan & Calvin Jones & Max Munday, 2006. "The contribution of tourism to the UK economy: Satellite account perspectives," The Service Industries Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(5), pages 493-511, July.
    5. Clem Tisdell (ed.), 2000. "The Economics of Tourism," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, volume 0, number 1004.
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