IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/rpanxx/v17y2017i6p1044-1056.html

Team performance indicators that predict match outcome and points difference in professional rugby league

Author

Listed:
  • Nimai Parmar
  • Nic James
  • Mike Hughes
  • Huw Jones
  • Gary Hearne

Abstract

Performance indicators allow for the objective quantification of performance, however, limited PI research for professional rugby league exists. Therefore, this paper assessed 24 relative PIs (home value minus away) from all 27 rounds of the 2012, 2013 and 2014 European Super League seasons, collected by Opta, amounting to 567 matches. Backwards logistic (match outcome) and linear (points difference) regression models were used alongside exhaustive Chi-Square Automatic Interaction Detection decision trees to identify performance indicators (PIs) and key performance indicators. Teams had a higher chance of winning and would gain more points when they scored first (OR = 1.6, β = 2.4) and increased completed sets (OR = 1.2, β = 1.2) by one unit. Conversely, teams had a lower chance of winning when they increased scoots (OR = 0.9, β = −0.2). However, some PIs which were thought to be important (as identified by previous literature) were removed from the analysis thus calling into question the appropriateness of stepwise methods. Future research may consider utilising dimension reduction techniques when analysing large data-sets that encompass multiple variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Nimai Parmar & Nic James & Mike Hughes & Huw Jones & Gary Hearne, 2017. "Team performance indicators that predict match outcome and points difference in professional rugby league," International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(6), pages 1044-1056, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:rpanxx:v:17:y:2017:i:6:p:1044-1056
    DOI: 10.1080/24748668.2017.1419409
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/24748668.2017.1419409
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/24748668.2017.1419409?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Husnija Kajmovic & Adis Kapur & Izet Radjo & Amel Mekic, 2014. "Differences in Performance Between Winners and Defeated Wrestlers in the European Championships for Cadets," International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 252-261, April.
    2. Yusuf Vahed & Wilbur Kraak & Ranel Venter, 2014. "The effect of the law changes on time variables of the South African Currie Cup Tournament during 2007 and 2013," International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 866-883, December.
    3. Jaime Sampaio & Manuel Janeira, 2003. "Statistical analyses of basketball team performance: understanding teams’ wins and losses according to a different index of ball possessions," International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 40-49, April.
    4. Steven Bremner & Gemma Robinson & Morgan D Williams, 2013. "A Retrospective Evaluation Of Team Performance Indicators In Rugby Union," International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 461-473, August.
    5. P. D. Jones & N. James & S. D. Mellalieu, 2004. "Possession as a performance indicator in soccer," International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 98-102, August.
    6. José Maria Pratas & Anna Volossovitch & Ana Isabel Carita, 2016. "The effect of performance indicators on the time the first goal is scored in football matches," International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1), pages 347-354, April.
    7. Julen Castellano & David Casamichana, 2015. "What are the differences between first and second divisions of Spanish football teams?," International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(1), pages 135-146, March.
    8. P. Meletakos & G. Vagenas & I. Bayios, 2011. "A multivariate assessment of offensive performance indicators in Men’s Handball: Trends and differences in the World Championships," International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 284-294, August.
    9. Diego Villarejo & José-Manuel Palao & Enrique Ortega & Miguel-Ángel Gomez-Ruano & Wilbur Kraak, 2015. "Match-related statistics discriminating between playing positions during the men’s 2011 Rugby World Cup," International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(1), pages 97-111, March.
    10. J. Michael Najdan & T. Matthew Robins & S. Paul Glazier, 2014. "Determinants of success in English domestic Twenty20 cricket," International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 276-295, April.
    11. Emile Diedrick & Michele van Rooyen, 2011. "Line Break Situations in International Rugby," International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 522-534, December.
    12. Robert Carroll, 2013. "Team Performance Indicators in Gaelic Football and Opposition Effects," International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 703-715, December.
    13. Anna, Petrenko, . "Мaркування готової продукції як складова частина інформаційного забезпечення маркетингової діяльності підприємств овочепродуктового підкомплексу," Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, vol. 2(01).
    14. repec:taf:rpanxx:v:10:y:2010:i:2:p:103-114 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Nic James, 2009. "Performance analysis of golf: Reflections on the past and a vision of the future," International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(2), pages 188-209, August.
    16. G. Dean Higham & G. Will Hopkins & B. David Pyne & M. Judith Anson, 2014. "Patterns of play associated with success in international rugby sevens," International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 111-122, April.
    17. B. Marshall Jones, 2009. "Scoring First and Home Advantage in the NHL," International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(3), pages 320-331, December.
    18. Kerys Harrop & Alan Nevill, 2014. "Performance indicators that predict success in an English professional League One soccer team," International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 907-920, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alexandru Nicolae Ungureanu & Corrado Lupo & Paolo Riccardo Brustio, 2021. "A Machine Learning Approach to Analyze Home Advantage during COVID-19 Pandemic Period with Regards to Margin of Victory and to Different Tournaments in Professional Rugby Union Competitions," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(23), pages 1-8, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Claudio A. Casal & José L. Losada & Daniel Barreira & Rubén Maneiro, 2021. "Multivariate Exploratory Comparative Analysis of LaLiga Teams: Principal Component Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(6), pages 1-18, March.
    2. Gomez, Miguel-Angel & Reus, Marc & Parmar, Nimai & Travassos, Bruno, 2020. "Exploring elite soccer teams’ performances during different match-status periods of close matches’ comebacks," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    3. Athalie J Redwood-Brown & Peter G O’Donoghue & Alan M Nevill & Chris Saward & Caroline Sunderland, 2019. "Effects of playing position, pitch location, opposition ability and team ability on the technical performance of elite soccer players in different score line states," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(2), pages 1-21, February.
    4. Vivian Welch & Christine M. Mathew & Panteha Babelmorad & Yanfei Li & Elizabeth T. Ghogomu & Johan Borg & Monserrat Conde & Elizabeth Kristjansson & Anne Lyddiatt & Sue Marcus & Jason W. Nickerson & K, 2021. "Health, social care and technological interventions to improve functional ability of older adults living at home: An evidence and gap map," Campbell Systematic Reviews, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 17(3), September.
    5. Persson, Petra & Qiu, Xinyao & Rossin-Slater, Maya, 2021. "Family Spillover Effects of Marginal Diagnoses: The Case of ADHD," IZA Discussion Papers 14020, IZA Network @ LISER.
    6. Sant'Anna, Ana Claudia & Bergtold, Jason & Shanoyan, Aleksan & Caldas, Marcellus & Granco, Gabriel, 2021. "Deal or No Deal? Analysis of Bioenergy Feedstock Contract Choice with Multiple Opt-out Options and Contract Attribute Substitutability," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315289, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    7. Tommaso Colussi & Ingo E. Isphording & Nico Pestel, 2021. "Minority Salience and Political Extremism," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 237-271, July.
    8. Erkmen Giray Aslim, 2019. "The Relationship Between Health Insurance and Early Retirement: Evidence from the Affordable Care Act," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 45(1), pages 112-140, January.
    9. Edna P. Conwi & Alexander G. Cortez & Normita Ramos, 2016. "Effects of the Dualized Training Program on the Occupational Interest of the Students Enrolled in Bachelor of Science in Hotel and Restaurant Management," Indian Journal of Commerce and Management Studies, Educational Research Multimedia & Publications,India, vol. 7(1), pages 31-36, January.
    10. Nihan Akyelken, 2017. "Mobility-Related Economic Exclusion: Accessibility and Commuting Patterns in Industrial Zones in Turkey," Social Inclusion, Cogitatio Press, vol. 5(4), pages 175-182.
    11. Youngna Choi, 2022. "Economic Stimulus and Financial Instability: Recent Case of the U.S. Household," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-25, June.
    12. Camillia Kong & John Coggon & Michael Dunn & Penny Cooper, 2019. "Judging Values and Participation in Mental Capacity Law," Laws, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-22, February.
    13. Dindo, Pietro & Massari, Filippo, 2020. "The wisdom of the crowd in dynamic economies," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 15(4), November.
    14. Benno Ferrarini & Julie Maupin & Marthe Hinojales, 2017. "Distributed Ledger Technologies for Developing Asia," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 533, Asian Development Bank.
    15. Andrzej Cieślik & Sarhad Hamza, 2022. "Inward FDI, IFRS Adoption and Institutional Quality: Insights from the MENA Countries," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-19, June.
    16. Anastasios Evgenidis & Apostolos Fasianos, 2019. "Monetary Policy and Wealth Inequalities in Great Britain: Assessing the role of unconventional policies for a decade of household data," Papers 1912.09702, arXiv.org.
    17. Ekaterina Aleksandrova & Kristian Behrens & Maria Kuznetsova, 2020. "Manufacturing (co)agglomeration in a transition country: Evidence from Russia," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(1), pages 88-128, January.
    18. Grazzini, Jakob & Richiardi, Matteo G. & Tsionas, Mike, 2017. "Bayesian estimation of agent-based models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 26-47.
    19. Karl McShane, 2017. "Getting Used to Diversity? Immigration and Trust in Sweden," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(3), pages 1895-1910.
    20. Bruce A. Seaman, 2013. "The role of the private sector in cultural heritage," Chapters, in: Ilde Rizzo & Anna Mignosa (ed.), Handbook on the Economics of Cultural Heritage, chapter 5, pages i-i, Edward Elgar Publishing.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:rpanxx:v:17:y:2017:i:6:p:1044-1056. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RPAN20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.