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Macroeconomic forces and capital market integration A VAR analysis for Malaysia

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  • Mansor Ibrahim

Abstract

This paper applies cointegration and VAR modeling to evaluate the long-run relationship and dynamic interactions between the Malaysian equity market, various economic variables, and major equity markets of the US and Japan. From the analysis, we find evidence for cointegration among the variables. The variance decompositions and impulse-response functions generated from the VAR suggest the dominant influence of nominal variables, particularly the money supply on Malaysian equity prices. At the same time, variations in equity prices do contain some information on such nominal variables, as money supply and consumer prices, suggesting bidirectional causality between them. We also note from the results the significant role of international equity prices on Malaysian equity prices as well as on Malaysian economic variables. Interestingly, the nature of the long-run relationship and spillovers of disturbances in the two major markets to the Malaysian economy is different. From a policy point of view, to the extent that monetary authority can control money supply, it has to be very cautious in implementing monetary policy since it has repercussions on financial stability. Moreover, disturbances of two major financial markets need to be treated differently in the information set of policy-makers.

Suggested Citation

  • Mansor Ibrahim, 2003. "Macroeconomic forces and capital market integration A VAR analysis for Malaysia," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 19-40.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:rjapxx:v:8:y:2003:i:1:p:19-40
    DOI: 10.1080/1354786032000045228
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    Cited by:

    1. Velip Suraj Pavto & Guntur Anjana Raju, 2020. "Relationship between Asian Emerging Stock Markets and Economic Fundamentals: A Cointegration and Block Exogeneity Wald Approach," International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), vol. 0(3), pages 280-292.
    2. Alexakis, Christos & Pappas, Vasileios & Tsikouras, Alexandros, 2017. "Hidden cointegration reveals hidden values in Islamic investments," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 70-83.
    3. Hizir Sofyan & M. Shabri Abd. Majid & Moh. Rizky Rahmanda, 2019. "Modeling Dynamic Causalities between the Indonesian Rupiah and Forex Markets of ASEAN, Japan and Europe," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 13(1), March.
    4. Chu, Patrick Kuok-Kun, 2011. "Relationship between macroeconomic variables and net asset values (NAV) of equity funds: Cointegration evidence and vector error correction model of the Hong Kong Mandatory Provident Funds (MPFs)," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 792-810.
    5. R. Ratneswary V. Rasiah, 2010. "Macroeconomic Activity And The Malaysian Stock Market: Empirical Evidence Of Dynamic Relations," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 4(2), pages 59-69.
    6. Majeed, Ayesha & Masih, Mansur, 2016. "A study of long- run theoretical relationship between ASEAN stock market indices and developed stock market indices of US and Japan," MPRA Paper 79724, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Pathan, Rubina & Masih, Mansur, 2013. "Relationship between macroeconomic variables and stock market index: evidence from India," MPRA Paper 63302, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Akhtar, Shumi & Akhtar, Farida & Jahromi, Maria & John, Kose, 2017. "Impact of interest rate surprises on Islamic and conventional stocks and bonds," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 218-231.
    9. Nam, Seung Oh & Oh, SeungYoung & Kim, Hyun Kyung, 2008. "The time difference effect of a measurement unit in the lead-lag relationship analysis of Korean financial market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 259-273.
    10. Abd. Majid, M. Shabri & Sofyan, Hizir & Rahmanda, Moh. Rizky, 2018. "Dynamic Interdependence of the Indonesian Rupiah with the ASEAN and the World Largest Forex Markets," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 52(1), pages 57-66.
    11. Abdul Karim, Bakri & Abdul Majid, M. Shabri & Abdul Karim, Samsul Ariffin, 2009. "Financial Integration between Indonesia and Its Major Trading Partners," MPRA Paper 17277, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Kabir, Sarkar Humayun & Masih, Mansur, 2014. "Dynamic Integration of Domestic Equity Price, Foreign Equity Price and Macroeconomic Indicators: Evidence from Malaysia," MPRA Paper 57007, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Animesh Bhattacharjee & Joy Das, 2021. "Investigating the Effect of Broad Money Supply on Stock Market Index and Market Capitalization: Evidence from Liberalized India," Jindal Journal of Business Research, , vol. 10(2), pages 185-198, December.
    14. Animesh Bhattacharjee & Joy Das, 2021. "Investigating the Long-run and the Short-run Relationship Between Domestic Macroeconomic Forces and Indian Equity Market: Evidence Based on ARDL Bounds Testing Approach," Paradigm, , vol. 25(1), pages 61-76, June.
    15. Suhaibu, Iddrisu & Harvey, Simon K. & Amidu, Mohammed, 2017. "The impact of monetary policy on stock market performance: Evidence from twelve (12) African countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1372-1382.
    16. Shabir Mohsin Hashmi & Bisharat Hussain Chang, 2023. "Asymmetric effect of macroeconomic variables on the emerging stock indices: A quantile ARDL approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 1006-1024, January.
    17. M. Shabri Abd. Majid & Ahamed Kameel Mydin Meera & Mohd. Azmi Omar & Hassanuddeen Abdul Aziz, 2009. "Dynamic linkages among ASEAN‐5 emerging stock markets," International Journal of Emerging Markets, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 4(2), pages 160-184, April.
    18. Albaity, Mohamed Shikh, 2011. "Impact of the monetary policy instruments on Islamic stock market index return," Economics Discussion Papers 2011-26, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    19. Onneetse L Sikalao-Lekobane, 2014. "Do Macroeconomic Variables Influence Domestic Stock Market Price Behaviour in Emerging Markets? A Johansen Cointegration Approach to the Botswana Stock Market," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 6(5), pages 363-372.
    20. A. Vijayakumar, 2010. "Effect of Financial Performance on Share Prices in the Indian Corporate Sector: An Empirical Study," Management and Labour Studies, XLRI Jamshedpur, School of Business Management & Human Resources, vol. 35(3), pages 369-381, August.

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