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Devising a Practical Model for Predicting Theatrical Movie Success: Focusing on the Experience Good Property


  • Byeng-Hee Chang
  • Eyun-Jung Ki


This study attempts to devise a new theoretical framework to classify and develop predictors of box office performance for theatrical movies. Three dependent variables including total box office, first-week box office, and length of run were adopted. Four categories of independent variables were employed: brand-related variables, objective features, information sources, and distribution-related variables. Sequel, actor, budget, genre (drama), Motion Picture Association of America rating (PG and R), release periods (Summer and Easter), and number of first-week screens were significantly related to total box office performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Byeng-Hee Chang & Eyun-Jung Ki, 2005. "Devising a Practical Model for Predicting Theatrical Movie Success: Focusing on the Experience Good Property," Journal of Media Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(4), pages 247-269.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:jmedec:v:18:y:2005:i:4:p:247-269
    DOI: 10.1207/s15327736me1804_2

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    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:ijrema:v:33:y:2016:i:2:p:428-448 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Kim, Taegu & Hong, Jungsik & Kang, Pilsung, 2015. "Box office forecasting using machine learning algorithms based on SNS data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 364-390.
    3. repec:eee:ijrema:v:33:y:2016:i:2:p:357-374 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Gazley, Aaron & Clark, Gemma & Sinha, Ashish, 2011. "Understanding preferences for motion pictures," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 64(8), pages 854-861, August.
    5. repec:eee:ijrema:v:34:y:2017:i:2:p:442-461 is not listed on IDEAS

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