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A spatio-temporal model for assessing winter damage risk to east coast vineyards

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  • Andrew Hoegh
  • Scotland Leman

Abstract

Climate is an essential component in site suitability for agriculture in general, and specifically in viticulture. With the recent increase in vineyards on the East Coast, an important climactic consideration in site suitability is extreme winter temperature. Often, maps of annual minimum temperatures are used to determine cold hardiness. However, cold hardiness of grapes is a more complicated process, since the temperature that grapes are able to withstand without damage is not constant. Rather, recent temperature cause acclimation or deacclimation and hence, have a large influence on cold hardiness. By combining National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) weather station data and leveraging recently created cold hardiness models for grapes, we develop a dynamic spatio-temporal model to determine the risk of winter damage due to extreme cold for several grape varieties commonly grown in the eastern United States. This analysis provides maps of winter damage risk to three grape varieties, Chardonnay, Cabernet Sauvignon, and Concord.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew Hoegh & Scotland Leman, 2015. "A spatio-temporal model for assessing winter damage risk to east coast vineyards," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(4), pages 834-845, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:japsta:v:42:y:2015:i:4:p:834-845
    DOI: 10.1080/02664763.2014.987652
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    1. Gabriel Huerta & Bruno Sansó & Jonathan R. Stroud, 2004. "A spatiotemporal model for Mexico City ozone levels," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 53(2), pages 231-248, April.
    2. Jonathan R. Stroud & Peter Müller & Bruno Sansó, 2001. "Dynamic models for spatiotemporal data," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 63(4), pages 673-689.
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