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Determinants of the real exchange rate in the long-run for developing and emerging countries: a theoretical and empirical approach

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  • Lúcio Otávio Seixas Barbosa
  • Frederico G. Jayme
  • Fabricio José Missio

Abstract

This paper presents a new framework for the determinants of real exchange in the long-run in developing and emerging countries (DECs). We assume that currencies should be regarded as an asset. In consequence, dealers in the foreign exchange market play a crucial role on its dynamics. To set our model, we connect the model developed by Kaltenbrunner, which is grounded on chapter 17 of the General Theory, with productivity’s differential effect. By doing so, it states that even short-run factors and monetary variables affect the long-run real exchange rate. Moreover, it points out that the hierarchical nature of the international monetary system is crucial to understand exchange rate movements in DECs. Besides presenting such theoretical approach, our contribution is to test it empirically for 45 DECs from 1990 to 2008 by applying econometric techniques appropriate for panel data. We use a new data-set, which comprises, among other variables, foreign portfolio flow, interest rate differential, external vulnerability measures, and international liquidity, on annual basis. The empirical results endorse this framework. Overall, it shows the primacy of financial factors as determinants of the long-run real exchange rate and points to the endogenous and self-perpetuating nature of international monetary system hierarchy.

Suggested Citation

  • Lúcio Otávio Seixas Barbosa & Frederico G. Jayme & Fabricio José Missio, 2018. "Determinants of the real exchange rate in the long-run for developing and emerging countries: a theoretical and empirical approach," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(1), pages 62-83, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:irapec:v:32:y:2018:i:1:p:62-83
    DOI: 10.1080/02692171.2017.1332017
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    1. Fernando J. Cardim de Carvalho, 1992. "Mr Keynes And The Post Keynesians," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 79.
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    1. David Alaminos & M. Belén Salas & Manuel Á. Fernández-Gámez, 2023. "Quantum Monte Carlo simulations for estimating FOREX markets: a speculative attacks experience," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-21, December.
    2. Olk, Christopher, 2023. "Liquidity premia: the PPP puzzle's missing piece?," SocArXiv exnf6, Center for Open Science.
    3. Mahraddika, Wishnu, 2020. "Real exchange rate misalignments in developing countries: The role of exchange rate flexibility and capital account openness," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 1-24.
    4. Okot, Anjelo & Kaltenbrunner, Annina & Perez Ruiz, Daniel, 2022. "Determinants of the exchange rate, its volatility and currency crash risk in Africa's low and lower middle-income countries," EIB Working Papers 2022/12, European Investment Bank (EIB).
    5. Piotr Dybka, 2020. "One model or many? Exchange rates determinants and their predictive capabilities," KAE Working Papers 2020-053, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.
    6. Grabowski, Wojciech & Welfe, Aleksander, 2020. "The Tobit cointegrated vector autoregressive model: An application to the currency market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 88-100.

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