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Changes in Investors' Market Attention and Near-Term Stock Market Returns

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  • Antti Klemola
  • Jussi Nikkinen
  • Jarkko Peltomäki

Abstract

We use Google Search volume to track changes investors' positive and negative market attention. Our results support the hypothesis that this information reflects investors' optimistic and pessimistic anticipation and can be used to predict near-term future returns. We find that changes in negative search term volume of “market crash” and “bear market” and changes in positive search term volume “market rally” explain near-term stock returns. Changes in investors' attention are partly related to past stock market returns, implying that investors are prone to pay attention to possible price reversals. These measures of market attention are potential gauges of investor sentiment.

Suggested Citation

  • Antti Klemola & Jussi Nikkinen & Jarkko Peltomäki, 2016. "Changes in Investors' Market Attention and Near-Term Stock Market Returns," Journal of Behavioral Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 18-30, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:hbhfxx:v:17:y:2016:i:1:p:18-30
    DOI: 10.1080/15427560.2016.1133620
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    Cited by:

    1. Lansing, Kevin J. & LeRoy, Stephen F. & Ma, Jun, 2022. "Examining the sources of excess return predictability: Stochastic volatility or market inefficiency?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 197(C), pages 50-72.
    2. Agarwal, Shweta & Kumar, Shailendra & Goel, Utkarsh, 2019. "Stock market response to information diffusion through internet sources: A literature review," International Journal of Information Management, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 118-131.
    3. Nikkinen, Jussi & Rothovius, Timo, 2019. "The EIA WPSR release, OVX and crude oil internet interest," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 131-141.
    4. Saeed Tajdini, 2023. "The effects of internet search intensity for products on companies’ stock returns: a competitive intelligence perspective," Journal of Marketing Analytics, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(3), pages 352-365, September.
    5. Bennett, Donyetta & Mekelburg, Erik & Williams, T.H., 2023. "BeFi meets DeFi: A behavioral finance approach to decentralized finance asset pricing," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    6. Imene Ben El Hadj Said & Skander Slim, 2022. "The Dynamic Relationship between Investor Attention and Stock Market Volatility: International Evidence," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-25, February.
    7. Mariano González-Sánchez & M. Encina Morales de Vega, 2021. "Influence of Bloomberg’s Investor Sentiment Index: Evidence from European Union Financial Sector," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-21, February.
    8. Chen, Zhongdong & Schmidt, Adam & Wang, Jin’ai, 2021. "Retail investor risk-seeking, attention, and the January effect," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).

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