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Estimating The Economic Consequences Of A Port Shutdown: The Special Role Of Resilience

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  • Adam Rose
  • Dan Wei

Abstract

This paper develops a methodology for the estimation of the total economic consequences of a seaport disruption, factoring in the major types of resilience. The foundation of the methodology is a combination of demand-driven and supply-driven input--output analyses. Resilience is included through a series of ad hoc adjustments based on various formal models and expert judgment. Moreover, we have designed the methodology in a manner that overcomes the major shortcomings of the supply-driven approach. We apply the methodology to a 90-day disruption at the twin seaports of Beaumont and Port Arthur, Texas, which is a major port area that includes a petrochemical manufacturing complex. We find that regional gross output could decline by as much as $13 billion at the port region level, but that resilience can reduce these impacts by nearly 70%.

Suggested Citation

  • Adam Rose & Dan Wei, 2013. "Estimating The Economic Consequences Of A Port Shutdown: The Special Role Of Resilience," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(2), pages 212-232, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:ecsysr:v:25:y:2013:i:2:p:212-232
    DOI: 10.1080/09535314.2012.731379
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    Cited by:

    1. Carlos Adriàn Romero & Omar Osvaldo Chisari & Leonardo Javier Mastronardi & Arturo Leonardo Vásquez Cordano, 2015. "The cost of failing to prevent gas supply interruption: A CGE assessment for Peru," ECONOMICS AND POLICY OF ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2015(2), pages 131-148.
    2. Baghersad, Milad & Zobel, Christopher W., 2015. "Economic impact of production bottlenecks caused by disasters impacting interdependent industry sectors," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 71-80.
    3. repec:eee:transb:v:108:y:2018:i:c:p:281-298 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Edward Oughton, 2017. "Stochastic counterfactual analysis for the vulnerability assessment of cyber-physical attacks on electricity distribution infrastructure networks," Working Papers 2017/03, Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.
    5. Morton O’Kelly, 2015. "Network Hub Structure and Resilience," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 235-251, June.
    6. Chen, Zhenhua & Rose, Adam Z. & Prager, Fynnwin & Chatterjee, Samrat, 2017. "Economic consequences of aviation system disruptions: A reduced-form computable general equilibrium analysis," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 207-226.
    7. repec:eee:proeco:v:208:y:2019:i:c:p:446-460 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Hallegatte, Stephane, 2014. "Economic resilience: definition and measurement," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6852, The World Bank.
    9. repec:eee:enepol:v:115:y:2018:i:c:p:584-615 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. repec:kap:transp:v:45:y:2018:i:4:d:10.1007_s11116-017-9819-6 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Giovanni Marin & Marco Modica, 2016. "Mapping the exposure to natural disaster losses for Italian municipalities," SEEDS Working Papers 0916, SEEDS, Sustainability Environmental Economics and Dynamics Studies, revised Oct 2016.
    12. repec:eee:proeco:v:208:y:2019:i:c:p:356-368 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Mattia Amadio & Jaroslav Mysiak & Lorenzo Carrera & Elco Koks, 2016. "Improving flood damage assessment models in Italy," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 82(3), pages 2075-2088, July.
    14. Susan Cutter, 2016. "The landscape of disaster resilience indicators in the USA," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(2), pages 741-758, January.
    15. Viljoen, Nadia M. & Joubert, Johan W., 2016. "The vulnerability of the global container shipping network to targeted link disruption," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 462(C), pages 396-409.
    16. Umberto Monarca & Ernesto Cassetta & Alessandro Sarra & Cesare Pozzi, 2015. "Integrating renewable energy sources into electricity markets: Power system operation, resource adequacy and market design," ECONOMICS AND POLICY OF ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2015(2), pages 149-166.
    17. repec:spr:masfgc:v:24:y:2019:i:3:d:10.1007_s11027-018-9814-z is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Susan L. Cutter, 2016. "The landscape of disaster resilience indicators in the USA," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(2), pages 741-758, January.
    19. repec:spr:jtrsec:v:11:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s12198-018-0191-3 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Simola, Heli, 2019. "Evaluating international impacts of China-specific shocks in an input-output framework," BOFIT Discussion Papers 17/2019, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    21. Oosterhaven, Jan, 2015. "On the doubtful usability of the inoperability IO model," Research Report 15008-EEF, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).

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