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A method for calculating the crowding-out effect in sport mega-event impact studies: The 2010 FIFA World Cup


  • Holger Preuss


Tourist expenditures constituted the largest part of the economic impact of South Africa's 2010 FIFA Football World Cup. However, limited air transport capacity and increased accommodation prices may have led to crowding-out effects. Until now, crowding-out could only be considered by using econometric modelling based on data of inbound arrival or accommodation statistics. This paper suggests a methodology for measuring the crowding-out effect precisely. It is based on the available statistics in South Africa and is applicable at province level. An important innovation is to distinguish crowding-out from time-switching effects. The paper explains the theoretical framework of crowding-out as part of impact measurement, discusses the technical problem of assessing crowding-out, and supplies formulae for calculating this effect. Although this is a study of the 2010 FIFA World Cup 2010 specifically, the methodology described here is appropriate for calculating the impacts of other mega-events.

Suggested Citation

  • Holger Preuss, 2011. "A method for calculating the crowding-out effect in sport mega-event impact studies: The 2010 FIFA World Cup," Development Southern Africa, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(3), pages 367-385, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:deveza:v:28:y:2011:i:3:p:367-385
    DOI: 10.1080/0376835X.2011.595995

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    Blog mentions

    As found by, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Coupe du Monde de la FIFA 2014 au Brésil : est-ce vraiment rentable ?
      by (Julien Moussavi) in BS Initiative on 2014-06-05 13:28:44


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    Cited by:

    1. Johan Fourie & Maria Santana-Gallego, 2017. "The Invisible Hand of Thierry Henry," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 18(7), pages 750-766, October.
    2. Peter A. Groothuis & Kurt W. Rotthoff, 2016. "The Economic Impact and Civic Pride Effects of Sports Teams and Mega-Events: Do The Public and the Professionals Agree?," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(1), pages 21-32, February.
    3. Robert W. Wassmer & Ryan S. Ong & Geoffrey Propheter, 2016. "Suggestions for the Needed Standardization of Determining the Local Economic Impact of Professional Sports," Economic Development Quarterly, , vol. 30(3), pages 252-266, August.
    4. Jean-Jacques Gouguet & Christophe Lepetit, 2017. "The Economic Impact Of Euro 2016. Methodological Aspects," Rivista di Diritto ed Economia dello Sport, Centro di diritto e business dello Sport, vol. 13(2), pages 153-171, settembre.
    5. Stefan Szymanski & Bastien Drut, 2020. "The Private Benefit of Public Funding: The FIFA World Cup, UEFA European Championship, and Attendance at Host Country League Soccer," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 21(7), pages 723-745, October.
    6. Eric Beckman & Mark Traynor, 2019. "Utilizing trade market analysis to identify the economic impact of a multiday special event in Miami Beach, Florida," Tourism Economics, , vol. 25(2), pages 253-273, March.
    7. Sungsoo Kim, 2021. "Assessing economic and fiscal impacts of sports complex in a small US county," Tourism Economics, , vol. 27(3), pages 455-465, May.
    8. Hyesun Kim & Jooa Baek & Yeongbae Choe, 2021. "Family life cycle and preferences for a mega-sporting event package: The case of the 2018 PyeongChang Winter Olympic Games," Tourism Economics, , vol. 27(3), pages 548-568, May.
    9. Christopher Vierhaus, 2019. "The international tourism effect of hosting the Olympic Games and the FIFA World Cup," Tourism Economics, , vol. 25(7), pages 1009-1028, November.

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