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A method for calculating the crowding-out effect in sport mega-event impact studies: The 2010 FIFA World Cup


  • Holger Preuss


Tourist expenditures constituted the largest part of the economic impact of South Africa's 2010 FIFA Football World Cup. However, limited air transport capacity and increased accommodation prices may have led to crowding-out effects. Until now, crowding-out could only be considered by using econometric modelling based on data of inbound arrival or accommodation statistics. This paper suggests a methodology for measuring the crowding-out effect precisely. It is based on the available statistics in South Africa and is applicable at province level. An important innovation is to distinguish crowding-out from time-switching effects. The paper explains the theoretical framework of crowding-out as part of impact measurement, discusses the technical problem of assessing crowding-out, and supplies formulae for calculating this effect. Although this is a study of the 2010 FIFA World Cup 2010 specifically, the methodology described here is appropriate for calculating the impacts of other mega-events.

Suggested Citation

  • Holger Preuss, 2011. "A method for calculating the crowding-out effect in sport mega-event impact studies: The 2010 FIFA World Cup," Development Southern Africa, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(3), pages 367-385, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:deveza:v:28:y:2011:i:3:p:367-385 DOI: 10.1080/0376835X.2011.595995

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Victor Matheson, 2006. "Mega-Events: The effect of the world’s biggest sporting events on local, regional, and national economies," Working Papers 0610, College of the Holy Cross, Department of Economics.
    2. Victor Matheson, 2009. "Economic Multipliers and Mega-Event Analysis," International Journal of Sport Finance, Fitness Information Technology, vol. 4(1), pages 63-70, February.
    3. WOLFGANG MAENNIG & STAN du PLESSIS, 2007. "World Cup 2010: South African Economic Perspectives And Policy Challenges Informed By The Experience Of Germany 2006," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 25(4), pages 578-590, October.
    4. Bernd Süssmuth & Malte Heyne & Wolfgang Maennig, 2010. "Induced Civic Pride and Integration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 72(2), pages 202-220, April.
    5. Stephanie Jasmand & Wolfgang Maennig, 2007. "Regional Income and Employment Effects of the 1972 Munich Olympic Summer Games," Working Papers 0712, International Association of Sports Economists;North American Association of Sports Economists.
    6. Robert Baumann & Victor Matheson & Chihiro Muroi, 2008. "Bowling in Hawaii: Examining the Effectiveness of Sports-Based Tourism Strategies," Working Papers 0808, College of the Holy Cross, Department of Economics.
    7. Robert Baade & Victor Matheson, 2004. "The Quest for the Cup: Assessing the Economic Impact of the World Cup," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(4), pages 343-354.
    8. Hagn, Florian & Maennig, Wolfgang, 2008. "Employment effects of the Football World Cup 1974 in Germany," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 1062-1075, October.
    9. Stan du Plessis & Cobus Venter, 2010. "The home team scores! A first assessment of the economic impact of World Cup 2010," Working Papers 21/2010, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
    10. Stan du Plessis & Wolfgang Maennig, 2007. "World Cup 2010: South African Economic Perspectives and Perspectives Policy Challenges Informed by the Experience of Germany 2006," Working Papers 004, Chair for Economic Policy, University of Hamburg.
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    Blog mentions

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    1. Coupe du Monde de la FIFA 2014 au Brésil : est-ce vraiment rentable ?
      by (Julien Moussavi) in BS Initiative on 2014-06-05 13:28:44

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