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Survey of recent developments

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  • Haryo Aswicahyono
  • Hal Hill

Abstract

Following the remarkably successful 2014 parliamentary and presidential elections in Indonesia, attention now turns to the new president and his agenda for the next five years. President Joko Widodo, known as Jokowi, has emphasised the importance of strong economic growth and rising living standards. But he faces significant, broad-ranging economic challenges and, perhaps not surprisingly, serious discussion of these issues did not feature during the election campaigns. In many respects the economy is at a crossroads, facing the choice between a business-asusual scenario of no reform and consequently sluggish economic growth, and a politically difficult reform agenda that would set it on a higher growth path. Economic policymakers regard the events of 2013 as a mini economic crisis, and they feel vindicated in their explicit preference for stability over growth-that is, for slowing the economy through tighter fiscal and monetary policy and letting the currency decline. For now, the economy is slowing but holding up quite well, especially by comparative international norms and considering foreign and domestic headwinds, including possible macroeconomic and financial fragilities. Here we examine these headwinds-from global economic volatility and declining commodity prices, particularly in the wake of the so-called Bernanke shock of May 2013, to the continuing policy drift at home. We investigate whether there is evidence of an emerging adjustment from the commodity-driven growth of the past decade to some of the traditional tradables sectors, especially manufacturing. While the commodity boom is almost certainly a thing of the past-at least at levels witnessed since 2005-the country's political narratives and the government's microeconomic policies appear to be still premised on an era of plenty funded by a disappearing boom. We speculate on likely options and directions for what in all likelihood will be a 'Jokowi decade'.
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Suggested Citation

  • Haryo Aswicahyono & Hal Hill, 2004. "Survey of recent developments," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(3), pages 277-305.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:bindes:v:40:y:2004:i:3:p:277-305
    DOI: 10.1080/0007491042000231494
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. R. William Liddle, 2005. "Year one of the Yudhoyono-Kalla duumvirate," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(3), pages 325-340.
    2. Agrawal, Nisha, 1995. "Indonesia - Labor market policies and international competitiveness," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1515, The World Bank.
    3. Thee Kian Wie, 2005. "Policies Affecting Indonesia's Industrial Technology Development," Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series d05-121, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    4. repec:ilo:ilowps:282608 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Anne Booth, 2005. "The evolving role of the central government in economic planning and policy making in Indonesia," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(2), pages 197-219.
    6. Hadi Soesastro & Raymond Atje, 2005. "Survey of recent developments," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(1), pages 5-34.
    7. repec:ilo:ilowps:297456 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Hal Hill & Brian Johns, 1985. "The role of direct foreign investment in developing east asian countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 121(2), pages 355-381, June.
    9. repec:ilo:ilowps:301188 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Chris Manning & Kurnya Roesad, 2006. "Survey of recent developments," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(2), pages 143-170.
    11. Prema-Chandra Athukorala, 2006. "Post-crisis export performance: The Indonesian experience in regional perspective," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(2), pages 177-211.
    12. Haryo Aswicahyono, 2000. "How Not to Industrialise? Indonesia's Automotive Industry," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(1), pages 209-241.
    13. Dionisius A. Narjoko & Raymond Atje, 2007. "The Effects of Agricultural Trade Liberalisation under the Doha Development Agenda with Special Reference to the Asia Pacific Region: A Brief Survey," Working Papers 3207, Asia-Pacific Research and Training Network on Trade (ARTNeT), an initiative of UNESCAP and IDRC, Canada..
    14. Haryo Aswicahyono & Hal Hill, 2015. "Is Indonesia Trapped in the Middle?," Discussion Paper Series 31, Department of International Economic Policy, University of Freiburg, revised Aug 2015.
    15. repec:ilo:ilowps:297942 is not listed on IDEAS

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