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Stock returns and economic growth

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  • Jakob B. Madsen
  • Ratbek Dzhumashev
  • Hui Yao

Abstract

Theoretical considerations appear to support the conjecture that stock returns are positively related to growth in the long run. However, the empirical literature does not give unanimous support to the theory. Based on a stochastic general equilibrium model it is argued that the long-run relationship between stock returns and per capita income growth is ambiguous and depends on output volatility. Using a century of data for 20 Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries it is shown that the relationship between stock returns and growth is positive over the period 1916--1951, in which output volatility was persistent. Outside this period no relationship between stock returns and growth is found. These findings are consistent with the predictions of the theoretical model.

Suggested Citation

  • Jakob B. Madsen & Ratbek Dzhumashev & Hui Yao, 2013. "Stock returns and economic growth," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(10), pages 1257-1271, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:45:y:2013:i:10:p:1257-1271
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2011.613802
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ravi Bansal & Amir Yaron, 2000. "Risks for the Long Run: A Potential Resolution of Asset Pricing Puzzles," NBER Working Papers 8059, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Annika Alexius & Daniel Spang, 2018. "Stock prices and GDP in the long run," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 8(4), pages 1-7.
    2. Bee-Hoong Tay & Pei-Tha Gan, 2016. "The Determinants of Investment Rewards: Evidence for Selected Developed and Developing Countries," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(3), pages 1180-1188.
    3. Atilla Cifter, 2015. "Stock Returns, Inflation, and Real Activity in Developing Countries: A Markov-Switching Approach," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 62(1), pages 55-76, March.
    4. KARGI, Bilal, 2014. "Portfolio in Turkish Economy, and A Long Termed Relation Between Foreign Direct Investments and The Growth, and The Structural Breakage Analysis (1980-2012)," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 6(1), pages 70-81.
    5. Ahmed, Walid M.A., 2020. "Corruption and equity market performance: International comparative evidence," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    6. La Saidi & Pasrun Adam & Rostin & Zainuddin Saenong & Muh. Yani Balaka & Gamsir & Asmuddin & Salwiah, 2017. "The Effect of Stock Prices and Exchange Rates on Economic Growth in Indonesia," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(3), pages 527-533.

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