IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

Interactive effect of changes in the shape of the yield curve and conditional term spread on expected equity returns


  • David A. Volkman
  • Olivier J.P. Maisondieu Laforge
  • Mark Wohar


Recent research has noted that the change in the shape of the yield curve can serve as a proxy for economic activity and contains economic information not present in other explanatory variables. This article extends previous research by examining the combined effect of changes in the shape of the yield curve (yield pattern) and term spread on ex ante equity returns. We find specific yield patterns do affect future equity returns, that changes in the expected long rate is a significant factor, and that, when conditioned on the change in yield curve, the term spread is time variant and significant in specific yield pattern environments and insignificant in others. Specifically, we find that average ex ante equity returns are significant and positive when the yield pattern shows signs of the expected long rate declining. In addition, we find the efficacy of the conditional term spread to predict future equity returns increased after 1980. Our results are consistent with the Expectation Theory of interest rates and robust across capitalization and industry classification.

Suggested Citation

  • David A. Volkman & Olivier J.P. Maisondieu Laforge & Mark Wohar, 2012. "Interactive effect of changes in the shape of the yield curve and conditional term spread on expected equity returns," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(18), pages 1491-1500, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:22:y:2012:i:18:p:1491-1500
    DOI: 10.1080/09603107.2012.663471

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Hjalmarsson, Erik, 2010. "Predicting Global Stock Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(01), pages 49-80, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Rangan Gupta & Marian Risse & David A. Volkman & Mark E. Wohar, 2017. "The Role of Term Spread and Pattern Changes in Predicting Stock Returns and Volatility of the United Kingdom: Evidence from a Nonparametric Causality-in-Quantiles Test Using Over 250 Years of Data," Working Papers 201755, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.

    More about this item


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:22:y:2012:i:18:p:1491-1500. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Chris Longhurst). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.