Research on the Impact of New Quality Productivity on Urban Economic Resilience

With an innovation-led orientation, efficiency and intensification, and high technology intensity, new quality productive forces have become a key driver of urban economic resilience. Drawing on the three-factor theory of productive forces, this paper constructs an evaluation index system for new quality productive forces and, using panel data for 284 prefecture-level Chinese cities from 2012 to 2022, employs a two-way fixed-effects model to empirically examine their impact on urban economic resilience. Results show that new quality productive forces significantly enhances urban economic resilience. The effect is heterogeneous - stronger in cities with weaker science-and-technology foundations, east of the Hu Huanyong Line, and in resource-based cities. Mechanism tests indicate three pathways: digital technological innovation, industrial agglomeration, and optimization of human-capital structure. Policy implications are threefold: (1) consolidate the foundations for NQPF by improving industrial layout and institutions to raise cities’ resistance and recovery capacity; (2) strengthen the human-capital bridge through higher education investment, talent policies, and vocational training; and (3) implement regionally differentiated strategies - the east should prioritize innovation-led upgrading and cluster deepening, while the west should accelerate transformation and close infrastructure gaps - supported by stronger mechanisms for coordinated regional development.  JEL classification numbers: R11, R58.