IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/waterr/v33y2019i8d10.1007_s11269-019-02259-y.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Water Resources Allocation in Transboundary River Basins Based on a Game Model Considering Inflow Forecasting Errors

Author

Listed:
  • Jisi Fu

    (Hohai University)

  • Ping-an Zhong

    (Hohai University
    Hohai University)

  • Juan Chen

    (Hohai University
    Hohai University)

  • Bin Xu

    (Hohai University)

  • Feilin Zhu

    (Hohai University)

  • Yu Zhang

    (Hohai University)

Abstract

Dynamic transboundary water resources allocation based on inflow prediction results is an important task for water resources management in river basins. This paper takes the watershed management agency as the leader and the associated area as the follower, and proposes a two-level asymmetric Nash-Harsanyi Leader-Follower game model considering inflow forecasting errors. In the proposed model, the Monte Carlo method is used to analyze the uncertainty of various stakeholder allocation results and the response regularity to the total water resource uncertainty. The quantitative relationship between the allocation results of stakeholders and the mean and standard deviation of total water resource uncertainty is subsequently established. The Huaihe River basin in China is selected as a case study. The results show the following: (1) the water allocated to the watershed management agency and three provinces has a normal distribution when the inflow forecasting error obeys the normal distribution; (2) the sum of the mean of the water allocated to stakeholders equals the mean of the forecast water resource and the sum of the standard deviations of the water allocated to stakeholders equals the standard deviation of the forecast water resource; (3) the mean and standard deviation of the allocation results have a good linear relationship with the mean and standard deviation of forecast water resource; (4) the distribution parameters of the stakeholder allocation results can be directly derived from the distribution parameters of the forecast information, thus aiding the stakeholders in making decisions and improving the practical value of the method.

Suggested Citation

  • Jisi Fu & Ping-an Zhong & Juan Chen & Bin Xu & Feilin Zhu & Yu Zhang, 2019. "Water Resources Allocation in Transboundary River Basins Based on a Game Model Considering Inflow Forecasting Errors," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(8), pages 2809-2825, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:33:y:2019:i:8:d:10.1007_s11269-019-02259-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-019-02259-y
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11269-019-02259-y
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11269-019-02259-y?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Madani, Kaveh & Dinar, Ariel, 2012. "Non-cooperative institutions for sustainable common pool resource management: Application to groundwater," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 34-45.
    2. Cem P. Cetinkaya & Mert Can Gunacti, 2018. "Multi-Criteria Analysis of Water Allocation Scenarios in a Water Scarce Basin," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(8), pages 2867-2884, June.
    3. Mehmet Kucukmehmetoglu & Jean-Michel Guldmann, 2004. "International Water Resources Allocation and Conflicts: The Case of the Euphrates and Tigris," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 36(5), pages 783-801, May.
    4. Ali Reza Nafarzadegan & Hassan Vagharfard & Mohammad Reza Nikoo & Ahmad Nohegar, 2018. "Socially-Optimal and Nash Pareto-Based Alternatives for Water Allocation under Uncertainty: an Approach and Application," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(9), pages 2985-3000, July.
    5. Dagmawi Mulugeta Degefu & Weijun He & Liang Yuan & Jian Hua Zhao, 2016. "Water Allocation in Transboundary River Basins under Water Scarcity: a Cooperative Bargaining Approach," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(12), pages 4451-4466, September.
    6. Dan Yan & Mingtian Yao & Fulco Ludwig & Pavel Kabat & He Qing Huang & Ronald W. A. Hutjes & Saskia E. Werners, 2018. "Exploring Future Water Shortage for Large River Basins under Different Water Allocation Strategies," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(9), pages 3071-3086, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sheng He & Xuefeng Sang & Junxian Yin & Yang Zheng & Heting Chen, 2023. "Short-term Runoff Prediction Optimization Method Based on BGRU-BP and BLSTM-BP Neural Networks," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(2), pages 747-768, January.
    2. Xin Liu & Xuefeng Sang & Jiaxuan Chang & Yang Zheng, 2021. "Multi-Model Coupling Water Demand Prediction Optimization Method for Megacities Based on Time Series Decomposition," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(12), pages 4021-4041, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Khadije Norouzi Khatiri & Mohammad Hossein Niksokhan & Amin Sarang & Asghar Kamali, 2020. "Coupled Simulation-Optimization Model for the Management of Groundwater Resources by Considering Uncertainty and Conflict Resolution," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(11), pages 3585-3608, September.
    2. Jianan Qin & Xiang Fu & Shaoming Peng & Yuni Xu & Jie Huang & Sha Huang, 2019. "Asymmetric Bargaining Model for Water Resource Allocation over Transboundary Rivers," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(10), pages 1-23, May.
    3. Ghadir Asadi & Mohammad H. Mostafavi-Dehzooei, 2022. "The Role of Learning in Adaptation to Technology: The Case of Groundwater Extraction," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-37, June.
    4. S W Tsang & C Y Jim, 2011. "Game-Theory Approach for Resident Coalitions to Allocate Green-Roof Benefits," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 43(2), pages 363-377, February.
    5. Mehmet Kucukmehmetoglu & Jean-Michel Guldmann, 2005. "Multi-Objective Programming for the Allocation of Trans-Boundary Water Resources - the Case of the Euphrates and Tigris," ERSA conference papers ersa05p9, European Regional Science Association.
    6. Mahdi Zarghami & Nasim Safari & Ferenc Szidarovszky & Shafiqul Islam, 2015. "Nonlinear Interval Parameter Programming Combined with Cooperative Games: a Tool for Addressing Uncertainty in Water Allocation Using Water Diplomacy Framework," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(12), pages 4285-4303, September.
    7. Karner, Katrin & Schmid, Erwin & Schneider, Uwe A. & Mitter, Hermine, 2021. "Computing stochastic Pareto frontiers between economic and environmental goals for a semi-arid agricultural production region in Austria," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    8. R. Roozbahani & B. Abbasi & S. Schreider, 2015. "Optimal allocation of water to competing stakeholders in a shared watershed," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 229(1), pages 657-676, June.
    9. Silvia Di Francesco & Stefano Casadei & Ilaria Di Mella & Francesca Giannone, 2022. "The Role of Small Reservoirs in a Water Scarcity Scenario: a Computational Approach," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(3), pages 875-889, February.
    10. Matteo Zavalloni & Meri Raggi & Davide Viaggi, 2016. "Assessing Collective Measures in Rural Policy: The Effect of Minimum Participation Rules on the Distribution of Benefits from Irrigation Infrastructure," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-19, December.
    11. Alain Jean-Marie & Tania Jimenez & Mabel Tidball, 2021. "Nearsighted, farsighted behaviors and learning. Application to a groundwater management problem [Comportements à court terme, à long terme et apprentissage. Application à un problème de gestion de ," Working Papers hal-03213518, HAL.
    12. Jianan Qin & Xiang Fu & Shaoming Peng & Sha Huang, 2020. "An Integrated Decision Support Framework for Incorporating Fairness and Stability Concerns into River Water Allocation," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(1), pages 211-230, January.
    13. R. Roozbahani & S. Schreider & B. Abbasi, 2013. "Economic Sharing of Basin Water Resources between Competing Stakeholders," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(8), pages 2965-2988, June.
    14. Du Bois, Rodrigo Salcedo & Macias, Miguel Angel Gutierrez, 2013. "Cooperation makes it happen? Groundwater management in Aguascalientes, Mexico: An experimental approach," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 151139, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    15. Zhenliang Liao & Phillip Hannam, 2013. "The Mekong Game: Achieving an All-win Situation," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(7), pages 2611-2622, May.
    16. Li Pan & Xudong Chen & Lu Zhao & Anran Xiao, 2019. "Does Information Asymmetry Impact Sub-Regions’ Cooperation of Regional Water Resource Allocation?," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(21), pages 1-16, November.
    17. Okura, Fumi & Budiasa, I Wayan & Kato, Tasuku, 2022. "Exploring a Balinese irrigation water management system using agent-based modeling and game theory," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 274(C).
    18. Kengo Suzuki & Ryohei Ishiwata, 2022. "Impact of a Carbon Tax on Energy Transition in a Deregulated Market: A Game-Based Experimental Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-19, October.
    19. Lalehzari, Reza & Kerachian, Reza, 2020. "Developing a framework for daily common pool groundwater allocation to demands in agricultural regions," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    20. Wegmann, Johannes & Mußhoff, Oliver, 2019. "Groundwater management institutions in the face of rapid urbanization – Results of a framed field experiment in Bengaluru, India," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 1-1.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:33:y:2019:i:8:d:10.1007_s11269-019-02259-y. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.