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Climate Change Impact Assessment on Blue and Green Water by Coupling of Representative CMIP5 Climate Models with Physical Based Hydrological Model

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  • Brij Kishor Pandey

    (Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee)

  • Deepak Khare

    (Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee)

  • Akiyuki Kawasaki

    (University of Tokyo)

  • Prabhash K. Mishra

    (National Institute of Hydrology)

Abstract

Climatic changes have altered hydrological and climatic parameters worldwide, and climate projections suggest that such alterations will continue. In order to maintain the sustainable development and acquire the knowledge of water availability, climatic projection must be coupled with hydrological models. In this study, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models output were integrated with a calibrated hydrological model, Soil and Water Assessment Tools (SWAT) to evaluate the potential effect of climate change on green and blue water over Upper Narmada river Basin (UNB). Therefore, top three representative climate models (MIROC5, CNRM-CM5 and MPI-ESM-LR) from 24 CMIP5 climate models were selected for hydrological modelling. Selected representative climate model outputs were bias corrected by distribution mapping to remove systematic bias correction. Multi-site model calibration approaches indicated Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) and Coefficient of Determination (R2) as 0.77 and 0.76 for calibration (1978–1995), and 0.73 and 0.70 for validation (1996–2005), respectively. Calibrated model was run for baseline period (1970–2000) and three futuristic period P1 (2011–2040), P2 (2041–2070) and P3 (2071–2100) under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Results indicated annual precipitation decreasing under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios changes in green and blue water varying from 16.22 to −14.10% (CNRM,P3) under RCP4.5 and from 38.25 to −22.57% under RCP8.5 with reference to baseline scenario. This study established the sensitivity of UNB to future climatic changes employing projections from CMIP5 climate models and exhibited an approach that applied multiple climate model outputs to estimate potential change over the river basin.

Suggested Citation

  • Brij Kishor Pandey & Deepak Khare & Akiyuki Kawasaki & Prabhash K. Mishra, 2019. "Climate Change Impact Assessment on Blue and Green Water by Coupling of Representative CMIP5 Climate Models with Physical Based Hydrological Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(1), pages 141-158, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:33:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1007_s11269-018-2093-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-018-2093-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ullrich, Antje & Volk, Martin, 2009. "Application of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to predict the impact of alternative management practices on water quality and quantity," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 96(8), pages 1207-1217, August.
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    1. Mona Ghafouri-Azar & Deg-Hyo Bae, 2019. "Analyzing the Variability in Low-Flow Projections under GCM CMIP5 Scenarios," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(15), pages 5035-5050, December.
    2. Jan Niel & E. Uytven & P. Willems, 2019. "Uncertainty Analysis of Climate Change Impact on River Flow Extremes Based on a Large Multi-Model Ensemble," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(12), pages 4319-4333, September.
    3. Swatantra Kumar Dubey & JungJin Kim & Younggu Her & Devesh Sharma & Hanseok Jeong, 2023. "Hydroclimatic Impact Assessment Using the SWAT Model in India—State of the Art Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-40, November.
    4. Maryam Abbaszadeh & Ommolbanin Bazrafshan & Rasool Mahdavi & Elham Rafiei Sardooi & Sajad Jamshidi, 2023. "Modeling Future Hydrological Characteristics Based on Land Use/Land Cover and Climate Changes Using the SWAT Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(10), pages 4177-4194, August.
    5. Junchao Jiang & Leting Lyu & Yuechi Han & Caizhi Sun, 2021. "Effect of Climate Variability on Green and Blue Water Resources in a Temperate Monsoon Watershed, Northeastern China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-13, February.
    6. Xiaoyang Tang & Deshan Tang & Fulin Zhang, 2024. "A Framework for Algorithmic Improvement to Mitigate the Effects of Equifinality in the Calibration of High-dimensional Parameters for Hydrological Models," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 38(1), pages 251-267, January.
    7. Jeewanthi Sirisena & Denie Augustijn & Aftab Nazeer & Janaka Bamunawala, 2022. "Use of Remote-Sensing-Based Global Products for Agricultural Drought Assessment in the Narmada Basin, India," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-21, October.

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