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Assessment of Trend in Global Drought Propensity in the Twenty-First Century Using Drought Management Index

Author

Listed:
  • Kironmala Chanda

    (Indian Institute of Technology (Indian School of Mines))

  • Rajib Maity

    (Indian Institute of Technology
    Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU))

Abstract

This study attempts to perform a global analysis of the trend in drought propensity in the twenty-first century using bias corrected soil moisture simulations from two General Circulation Model (GCMs) outputs based on the Representative Concentration Pathway-8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. Drought propensity is characterized in terms of the probabilistic index – Drought Management Index (DMI), which is suitable for the assessment of slowly varying changes in soil moisture drought on a multi-year time scale. A global gridded analysis is performed to assess the future trend in drought propensity at each location on the globe over the twenty-first century. Regional analysis is also carried out to investigate the trends, if any, at the continental scale. A significant increasing trend in drought propensity is observed in large parts of Africa, South America and Asia, whereas a significant decreasing trend is observed in the northern parts of Europe and North America. This study helps to assess the spatio-temporal propagation of global drought propensity in future and aids in identifying the regions that would be relatively more/less prone to droughts towards the end of the century.

Suggested Citation

  • Kironmala Chanda & Rajib Maity, 2017. "Assessment of Trend in Global Drought Propensity in the Twenty-First Century Using Drought Management Index," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(4), pages 1209-1225, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:31:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s11269-017-1571-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-017-1571-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. C. J. Vörösmarty & P. B. McIntyre & M. O. Gessner & D. Dudgeon & A. Prusevich & P. Green & S. Glidden & S. E. Bunn & C. A. Sullivan & C. Reidy Liermann & P. M. Davies, 2010. "Global threats to human water security and river biodiversity," Nature, Nature, vol. 467(7315), pages 555-561, September.
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