Simulating Microbial Water Quality in Data-Scarce Catchments: an Update of the WQSAM Model to Simulate the Fate of Escherichia coli

Faecal-derived microbial pollution of fresh surface waters is a global problem. Water quality models can play an important role in the management of microbial pollution; however, most existing models are too complex and require a large amount of observed data for calibration, thereby excluding their use in data-scarce catchments. The Water Quality Systems Assessment Model (WQSAM) is a water quality water model structured on the concept of requisite simplicity, thereby limiting the complexity and data requirements of the model. Here, microbial water quality simulation functionality was added to WQSAM, with the aim of assessing whether a simplified representation of processes affecting microbial water quality is sufficiently accurate for purposes of water resource management. Simulations of microbial water quality were based on the inputs and fate of an indicator organism, Escherichia coli. Non-point source inputs were modelled by assigning microbial water quality ‘signatures’ to incremental flow components, whereas a similar signature was assigned to point source inputs. The instream fate of E. coli was based on a first-order rate equation, moderated by salinity and water temperature. The model was validated by application to the upper to middle Crocodile River Catchment, Mpumalanga, South Africa, for historical conditions. Model simulations were obtained that were representative of the variability of observed temperature, salinity and microbial water quality data. The simulations of E. coli were found to be most sensitive to the decay rate k 0. It is argued here that the uncertainty in model results due to the use of a relatively simple model structure would be no more, or even less that that due to the application of a complex model to a catchment with insufficient observed data for adequate model calibration.