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Climate Change Impact Assessment on Water Resources and Susceptible Zones Identification in the Asian Monsoon Region

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  • Deg-Hyo Bae
  • Toshio Koike
  • Jehangir Awan
  • Moon-Hwan Lee
  • Kyung-Hwan Sohn

Abstract

This study investigated the future climate change impacts on water resources and delineated the highly susceptible zones in the Asian monsoon region. Three General Circulation Models (GCMs) were employed for future climate change projections. The change factor method with bilinear interpolation was used to project climate change at 0.5° horizontal gird resolution. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrological model was employed to project runoff using future climate change scenarios. Average temperature, precipitation and runoff were projected to increase by all future periods i.e., 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. In particular by 2080s, they were projected to increase by 3.7 °C, 10.7 and 11.1 %, respectively. Latitudinal and longitudinal analysis was performed to investigate the features of future climate change at different latitudes and longitudes. The climate change projections revealed susceptible regions in East Asia over southern China, and in South Asia over the Tibetan plateau, India and Pakistan. Southern China was projected to be adversely affected by climate change with precipitation and runoff increase during summer and autumn seasons, and decrease during winter and spring seasons. Similarly, distinct climate change features were projected over the Tibetan plateau and north Pakistan with significant increase of average annual temperature and decrease of average annual precipitation and runoff. This change is alarming for the world’s longest glaciers outside the Polar Regions. On the other hand, the precipitation and runoff were projected to significantly increase over southwest India and south Pakistan. That may have positive impact over extremely water-scarce regions i.e., the Thar Desert, the Cholistan Desert and the Kharan Desert, but also poses a serious threat to the flood prone areas of South India and Pakistan. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Deg-Hyo Bae & Toshio Koike & Jehangir Awan & Moon-Hwan Lee & Kyung-Hwan Sohn, 2015. "Climate Change Impact Assessment on Water Resources and Susceptible Zones Identification in the Asian Monsoon Region," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(14), pages 5377-5393, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:29:y:2015:i:14:p:5377-5393
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-015-1124-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Christopher White & Trevor Tanton & David Rycroft, 2014. "The Impact of Climate Change on the Water Resources of the Amu Darya Basin in Central Asia," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(15), pages 5267-5281, December.
    2. Konstantine Georgakakos & Deg-Hyo Bae & Chang-Sam Jeong, 2005. "Utility of Ten-Day Climate Model Ensemble Simulations for Water Resources Applications in Korean Watersheds," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 19(6), pages 849-872, December.
    3. Thanh Le & Deg-Hyo Bae, 2013. "Evaluating the Utility of IPCC AR4 GCMs for Hydrological Application in South Korea," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(9), pages 3227-3246, July.
    4. Sandra Mourato & Madalena Moreira & João Corte-Real, 2015. "Water Resources Impact Assessment Under Climate Change Scenarios in Mediterranean Watersheds," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(7), pages 2377-2391, May.
    5. Andrew G. Turner & H. Annamalai, 2012. "Climate change and the South Asian summer monsoon," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(8), pages 587-595, August.
    6. Peter Kreins & Martin Henseler & Jano Anter & Frank Herrmann & Frank Wendland, 2015. "Quantification of Climate Change Impact on Regional Agricultural Irrigation and Groundwater Demand," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(10), pages 3585-3600, August.
    7. Moon-Hwan Lee & Deg-Hyo Bae, 2015. "Climate Change Impact Assessment on Green and Blue Water over Asian Monsoon Region," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(7), pages 2407-2427, May.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Kai Lun Chong & Sai Hin Lai & Ahmed El-Shafie, 2019. "Wavelet Transform Based Method for River Stream Flow Time Series Frequency Analysis and Assessment in Tropical Environment," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(6), pages 2015-2032, April.

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