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Predictive Analysis and Simulation Uncertainty of a Distributed Hydrological Model

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  • Abdolreza Bahremand
  • Florimond Smedt

Abstract

Distributed hydrological models should pass through a careful calibration procedure backed by sensitivity, uncertainty and predictive analysis before they are utilized as a decision making aid in watershed management and scenario studies. This paper examines whether the uncertainty of the parameters of the spatially distributed hydrologic model WetSpa causes significant uncertainty in the model predictions. The WetSpa model is applied to the Torysa river basin, a rather large catchment located in Slovakia. Parameter estimation, sensitivity and predictive analysis of the model parameters are performed using a model-independent parameter estimator, PEST. It is found that the correction factor for measured evaporation data has the highest relative sensitivity. Parameter uncertainty and predictive analysis give an insight of a proper parameter set and parameter uncertainty intervals and prove that the parameter uncertainty of the model does not result in a significant level of predictive uncertainty. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2010

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  • Abdolreza Bahremand & Florimond Smedt, 2010. "Predictive Analysis and Simulation Uncertainty of a Distributed Hydrological Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(12), pages 2869-2880, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:24:y:2010:i:12:p:2869-2880
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-010-9584-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. A. Bahremand & F. Smedt & J. Corluy & Y. Liu & J. Poorova & L. Velcicka & E. Kunikova, 2007. "WetSpa Model Application for Assessing Reforestation Impacts on Floods in Margecany–Hornad Watershed, Slovakia," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 21(8), pages 1373-1391, August.
    2. A. Bahremand & F. Smedt, 2008. "Distributed Hydrological Modeling and Sensitivity Analysis in Torysa Watershed, Slovakia," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 22(3), pages 393-408, March.
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    1. Chengcheng Huang & Guoqiang Wang & Xiaogu Zheng & Jingshan Yu & Xinyi Xu, 2015. "Simple Linear Modeling Approach for Linking Hydrological Model Parameters to the Physical Features of a River Basin," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(9), pages 3265-3289, July.
    2. Xi Chen & Tao Yang & Xiaoyan Wang & Chong-Yu Xu & Zhongbo Yu, 2013. "Uncertainty Intercomparison of Different Hydrological Models in Simulating Extreme Flows," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(5), pages 1393-1409, March.
    3. Jian Yin & Chesheng Zhan & Wen Ye, 2016. "An Experimental Study on Evapotranspiration Data Assimilation Based on the Hydrological Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(14), pages 5263-5279, November.
    4. Yunxing Yin & Sanyuan Jiang & Charlotta Pers & Xiaoying Yang & Qun Liu & Jin Yuan & Mingxing Yao & Yi He & Xingzhang Luo & Zheng Zheng, 2016. "Assessment of the Spatial and Temporal Variations of Water Quality for Agricultural Lands with Crop Rotation in China by Using a HYPE Model," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-19, March.
    5. Jing Yang & Yongbo Liu & Wanhong Yang & Yaning Chen, 2012. "Multi-Objective Sensitivity Analysis of a Fully Distributed Hydrologic Model WetSpa," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(1), pages 109-128, January.
    6. Simon Deslauriers & Tew-Fik Mahdi, 2018. "Flood modelling improvement using automatic calibration of two dimensional river software SRH-2D," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 91(2), pages 697-715, March.

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