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Impact of climate change and urban development on extreme flows in the Grote Nete watershed, Belgium

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  • Mohsen Tavakoli
  • Florimond De Smedt
  • Thomas Vansteenkiste
  • Patrick Willems

Abstract

This study investigates how extreme flows in the Grote Nete watershed located in the Flanders region of Belgium will respond to climate change and urban growth using the hydrological model WetSpa. Three climate change scenarios (low, mean and high), three urban development scenarios (low, medium and high) and the nine combined climate–urban change scenarios are considered. The results indicate that extreme low flows would decrease noticeably by climate change, while they would be less sensitive to urban development. On the other hand, extreme peak flows are predicted to increase considerably due to both climate change and urban growth. It is concluded that coupling the effects of land use change with climate change may lead to severe increase in the frequency river floods in winter as well as the frequency of extreme river low flows in summer. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Mohsen Tavakoli & Florimond De Smedt & Thomas Vansteenkiste & Patrick Willems, 2014. "Impact of climate change and urban development on extreme flows in the Grote Nete watershed, Belgium," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 71(3), pages 2127-2142, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:71:y:2014:i:3:p:2127-2142
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-013-1001-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. A. Bahremand & F. Smedt & J. Corluy & Y. Liu & J. Poorova & L. Velcicka & E. Kunikova, 2007. "WetSpa Model Application for Assessing Reforestation Impacts on Floods in Margecany–Hornad Watershed, Slovakia," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 21(8), pages 1373-1391, August.
    2. Elias Bekele & H. Knapp, 2010. "Watershed Modeling to Assessing Impacts of Potential Climate Change on Water Supply Availability," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(13), pages 3299-3320, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jan Niel & E. Uytven & P. Willems, 2019. "Uncertainty Analysis of Climate Change Impact on River Flow Extremes Based on a Large Multi-Model Ensemble," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(12), pages 4319-4333, September.

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