IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/stpapr/v62y2021i1d10.1007_s00362-019-01092-0.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecasting counting and time statistics of compound Cox processes: a focus on intensity phase type process, deletions and simultaneous events

Author

Listed:
  • Paula R. Bouzas

    (University of Granada)

  • Nuria Ruiz-Fuentes

    (University of Jaén)

  • Carmen Montes-Gijón

    (University of Granada)

  • Juan Eloy Ruiz-Castro

    (University of Granada)

Abstract

Compound Cox processes (CCP) are flexible marked point processes due to the stochastic nature of their intensity. This paper states closed-form expressions of their counting and time statistics in terms of the intensity and of the mean processes. They are forecast by means of principal components prediction models applied to the mean process in order to reach attainable results. A proposition proves that only weak restrictions are needed to estimate the probability of a new occurrence. Additionally, the phase type process is introduced, which important feature is that its marginal distributions are phase type with random parameters. Since any non-negative variable can be approximated by a phase-type distribution, the new stochastic process is proposed to model the intensity process of any point process. The CCP with this type of intensity provides an especially general model. Several simulations and the corresponding study of the estimation errors illustrate the results and their accuracy. Finally, an application to real data is performed; extreme temperatures in the South of Spain are modeled by a CPP and forecast.

Suggested Citation

  • Paula R. Bouzas & Nuria Ruiz-Fuentes & Carmen Montes-Gijón & Juan Eloy Ruiz-Castro, 2021. "Forecasting counting and time statistics of compound Cox processes: a focus on intensity phase type process, deletions and simultaneous events," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 62(1), pages 235-265, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:stpapr:v:62:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s00362-019-01092-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s00362-019-01092-0
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00362-019-01092-0
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s00362-019-01092-0?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alan Genaro & Adilson Simonis, 2015. "Estimating doubly stochastic Poisson process with affine intensities by Kalman filter," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 56(3), pages 723-748, August.
    2. Bouzas, P.R. & Valderrama, M.J. & Aguilera, A.M. & Ruiz-Fuentes, N., 2006. "Modelling the mean of a doubly stochastic Poisson process by functional data analysis," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(10), pages 2655-2667, June.
    3. Lin, X.Sheldon & Pavlova, Kristina P., 2006. "The compound Poisson risk model with a threshold dividend strategy," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 57-80, February.
    4. Mohammad Sepehrifar & Shantia Yarahmadian, 2017. "Decreasing renewal dichotomous Markov noise shock model with hypothesis testing applications," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 58(4), pages 1115-1124, December.
    5. Economou, Antonis, 2003. "On the control of a compound immigration process through total catastrophes," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 147(3), pages 522-529, June.
    6. Fatih Tank & Serkan Eryilmaz, 2015. "The distributions of sum, minima and maxima of generalized geometric random variables," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 1191-1203, November.
    7. P. Bouzas & N. Ruiz-Fuentes & F. Ocaña, 2007. "Functional approach to the random mean of a compound Cox process," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 467-479, September.
    8. Ana M. Aguilera & Francisco A. Ocaña & Mariano J. Valderrama, 1997. "An approximated principal component prediction model for continuous‐time stochastic processes," Applied Stochastic Models and Data Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 13(2), pages 61-72, June.
    9. Paula R. Bouzas & Ana M. Aguilera & Nuria Ruiz-Fuentes, 2012. "Functional Estimation of the Random Rate of a Cox Process," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 57-69, March.
    10. Sukhdev Singh & Yogesh Mani Tripathi, 2018. "Estimating the parameters of an inverse Weibull distribution under progressive type-I interval censoring," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 21-56, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fernández-Alcalá, R.M. & Navarro-Moreno, J. & Ruiz-Molina, J.C., 2009. "Statistical inference for doubly stochastic multichannel Poisson processes: A PCA approach," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 53(12), pages 4322-4331, October.
    2. van der Linde, Angelika, 2008. "Variational Bayesian functional PCA," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 517-533, December.
    3. Zan Yu & Lianzeng Zhang, 2024. "Computing the Gerber-Shiu function with interest and a constant dividend barrier by physics-informed neural networks," Papers 2401.04378, arXiv.org.
    4. Zhang, Aili & Li, Shuanming & Wang, Wenyuan, 2023. "A scale function based approach for solving integral-differential equations in insurance risk models," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 450(C).
    5. Liang, Zhibin & Young, Virginia R., 2012. "Dividends and reinsurance under a penalty for ruin," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 437-445.
    6. Krzysztof Jasiński, 2021. "The number of failed components in a coherent working system when the lifetimes are discretely distributed," Metrika: International Journal for Theoretical and Applied Statistics, Springer, vol. 84(7), pages 1081-1094, October.
    7. Yang, Hu & Zhang, Zhimin, 2009. "The perturbed compound Poisson risk model with multi-layer dividend strategy," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 70-78, January.
    8. Nitin Kumar & Umesh Chandra Gupta, 2022. "Markovian Arrival Process Subject to Renewal Generated Binomial Catastrophes," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 24(4), pages 2287-2312, December.
    9. Arribas-Gil, Ana & Müller, Hans-Georg, 2014. "Pairwise dynamic time warping for event data," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 255-268.
    10. Yang, Hu & Zhang, Zhimin, 2008. "Gerber-Shiu discounted penalty function in a Sparre Andersen model with multi-layer dividend strategy," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 984-991, June.
    11. Cheung, Eric C.K., 2011. "A generalized penalty function in Sparre Andersen risk models with surplus-dependent premium," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 384-397, May.
    12. Li, Shu & Landriault, David & Lemieux, Christiane, 2015. "A risk model with varying premiums: Its risk management implications," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 38-46.
    13. Mahdi Teimouri, 2022. "bccp: an R package for life-testing and survival analysis," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 37(1), pages 469-489, March.
    14. Lin, X. Sheldon & Sendova, Kristina P., 2008. "The compound Poisson risk model with multiple thresholds," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 617-627, April.
    15. Chi, Yichun & Lin, X. Sheldon, 2011. "On the threshold dividend strategy for a generalized jump-diffusion risk model," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 326-337, May.
    16. Boxma, Onno & Frostig, Esther & Perry, David & Yosef, Rami, 2017. "A state dependent reinsurance model," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 170-181.
    17. Liu, Xiangdong & Xiong, Jie & Zhang, Shuaiqi, 2015. "The Gerber–Shiu discounted penalty function in the classical risk model with impulsive dividend policy," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 183-190.
    18. Antonis Economou & Athanasia Manou, 2013. "Equilibrium balking strategies for a clearing queueing system in alternating environment," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 208(1), pages 489-514, September.
    19. Epaminondas G. Kyriakidis & Theodosis D. Dimitrakos, 2005. "Computation of the Optimal Policy for the Control of a Compound Immigration Process through Total Catastrophes," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 97-118, March.
    20. He, Yue & Kawai, Reiichiro & Shimizu, Yasutaka & Yamazaki, Kazutoshi, 2023. "The Gerber-Shiu discounted penalty function: A review from practical perspectives," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 1-28.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:stpapr:v:62:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s00362-019-01092-0. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.