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About Scenarios and Quantitative Parameters of the Forecast for the Development of the ICT Sector in Russia

Author

Listed:
  • D. R. Belousov

    (Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting, Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences)

  • E. Yu. Ablaev

    (Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting, Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences)

  • E. A. Abramova

    (Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting, Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences)

  • V. G. Artemenko

    (Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting, Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences)

  • I. B. Ipatova

    (Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting, Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences)

  • K. V. Mikhailenko

    (Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting, Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences)

  • O. G. Solntsev

    (Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting, Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences)

Abstract

The article describes the results of quantitative calculations in accordance with scenario forecasts of the global and domestic economies, as well as the Russian information and communication technology (ICT) sector. Based on the scenario conditions, quantitative parameters of forecasts for the development of the domestic ICT sector were determined in four scenarios: “maximum” (target scenario), “cautious growth,” “moderate expansion” and “crisis” (the worst possible) taking into account their characteristic features.

Suggested Citation

  • D. R. Belousov & E. Yu. Ablaev & E. A. Abramova & V. G. Artemenko & I. B. Ipatova & K. V. Mikhailenko & O. G. Solntsev, 2025. "About Scenarios and Quantitative Parameters of the Forecast for the Development of the ICT Sector in Russia," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 221-236, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sorede:v:36:y:2025:i:2:d:10.1134_s1075700724700692
    DOI: 10.1134/S1075700724700692
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dolores Añón Higón & Daniel Bonvin, 2022. "Information and communication technologies and firms’ export performance," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 31(4), pages 955-979.
    2. D. R. Belousov & E. M. Sabel’nikova, 2024. "Experience of Applying Structural Approach to Scenario Planning for Long-Term Socio-Economic Development Using the Survey Method," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 35(4), pages 508-517, August.
    3. Marijn A. Bolhuis & Mr. Jiaqian Chen & Benjamin R Kett, 2023. "Fragmentation in Global Trade: Accounting for Commodities," IMF Working Papers 2023/073, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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