IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/sorede/v35y2024i1d10.1134_s1075700724010064.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Goals and Methods of Estimating Energy Security Indicator Thresholds in Forecasts

Author

Listed:
  • Yu. D. Kononov

    (Melentiev Energy Systems Institute, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences)

Abstract

This article considers the possibility of increasing the significance of long-term forecasts of the development of the FEC by taking into account the influence of its various industries on energy security (ES). This estimate is made using an integrated index which characterize the degree of deviation of specific ES indicators from their thresholds. Indicators characterizing the economic aspect of ES, which set depend on the considered perspective are proposed. Different methods of determining the maximal allowed values of the indicators are considered. Experimental calculation results are provided showing the interdependency of these values. It is showcased that the indicative analysis of thresholds must be preceded by the estimation of strategic ES threats and detecting the stable behavior region of the main forecast indicators.

Suggested Citation

  • Yu. D. Kononov, 2024. "Goals and Methods of Estimating Energy Security Indicator Thresholds in Forecasts," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 35(1), pages 72-79, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sorede:v:35:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1134_s1075700724010064
    DOI: 10.1134/S1075700724010064
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1134/S1075700724010064
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1134/S1075700724010064?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. V. A. Malakhov & K. V. Nesytykh, 2022. "Russia’s Long-Term Macroeconomic Losses and Benefits from the Low-Carbon Development of the World and Domestic Energy Industry," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 33(4), pages 392-401, August.
    2. Augutis, Juozas & Krikštolaitis, Ričardas & Martišauskas, Linas & Pečiulytė, Sigita & Žutautaitė, Inga, 2017. "Integrated energy security assessment," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 890-901.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yu. D. Kononov & D. Yu. Kononov, 2025. "Estimation of Electric Energy Cost Thresholds in Analytical Energy Security Forecasts," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 339-346, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Evgeny Lisin & Wadim Strielkowski & Veronika Chernova & Alena Fomina, 2018. "Assessment of the Territorial Energy Security in the Context of Energy Systems Integration," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-14, November.
    2. S. P. Filippov & F. V. Veselov & A. V. Keiko & A. A. Khorshev, 2023. "Approaches to the Forecast Formation of the Development of the Russian Energy Sector as a Component Part of Scenarios for Decarbonization of the Country’s Economy," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 34(6), pages 769-777, December.
    3. Aurelia Rybak & Aleksandra Rybak & Jarosław Joostberens, 2023. "The Impact of Removing Coal from Poland’s Energy Mix on Selected Aspects of the Country’s Energy Security," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-13, February.
    4. Ewelina Włodarczyk & Joanna Herczakowska, 2025. "Social Dimension of Poland’s Sustainable Energy Transition as Assessed by Residents of the Silesian Region," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(6), pages 1-24, March.
    5. Vivoda, Vlado, 2019. "LNG import diversification and energy security in Asia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 967-974.
    6. Berjawi, A.E.H. & Walker, S.L. & Patsios, C. & Hosseini, S.H.R., 2021. "An evaluation framework for future integrated energy systems: A whole energy systems approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    7. Adinda Franky Nelwan & Rinaldy Dalimi & Chairul Hudaya, 2021. "A New Formula to Quantify the National Energy Security of the World s Top Ten Most Populous Nations," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(1), pages 394-406.
    8. Vivoda, Vlado, 2022. "LNG export diversification and demand security: A comparative study of major exporters," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    9. Zhenyu Zhao & Huijia Yang, 2020. "Regional Security Assessment of Integrated Energy Systems with Renewables in China: A Grid-Connected Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-18, December.
    10. De Rosa, Mattia & Gainsford, Kenneth & Pallonetto, Fabiano & Finn, Donal P., 2022. "Diversification, concentration and renewability of the energy supply in the European Union," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C).
    11. Matsumoto, Ken’ichi & Shiraki, Hiroto, 2018. "Energy security performance in Japan under different socioeconomic and energy conditions," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 391-401.
    12. Fouladvand, Javanshir, 2022. "Behavioural attributes towards collective energy security in thermal energy communities: Environmental-friendly behaviour matters," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(PB).
    13. Stanisław Jaworski & Mariola Chrzanowska & Monika Zielińska-Sitkiewicz & Robert Pietrzykowski & Aleksandra Jezierska-Thöle & Piotr Zielonka, 2023. "Evaluating the Progress of Renewable Energy Sources in Poland: A Multidimensional Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(18), pages 1-21, September.
    14. Siksnelyte-Butkiene, Indre & Streimikiene, Dalia & Lekavicius, Vidas & Balezentis, Tomas, 2024. "Comprehensive analysis of energy security indicators and measurement of their integrity," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    15. Yulia Vyacheslavovna Ragulina & Aleksei Valentinovich Bogoviz & Svetlana Vladislavlevna Lobova & Alexander Nikolaevich Alekseev, 2019. "An Aggregated Energy Security Index of Russia, 1990-2015," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(1), pages 212-217.
    16. Jarosław Brodny & Magdalena Tutak & Wieslaw Wes Grebski, 2025. "A Holistic Assessment of Sustainable Energy Security and the Efficiency of Policy Implementation in Emerging EU Economies: A Long-Term Perspective," Energies, MDPI, vol. 18(7), pages 1-38, April.
    17. Peng, Cheng & Chen, Heng & Lin, Chaoran & Guo, Shuang & Yang, Zhi & Chen, Ke, 2021. "A framework for evaluating energy security in China: Empirical analysis of forecasting and assessment based on energy consumption," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    18. Yupei Du & Wenju Wang & Qian Lu & Ziyang Li, 2020. "A DPSIR-TODIM Model Security Evaluation of China’s Rare Earth Resources," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(19), pages 1-24, September.
    19. Desogus, Eleonora & Grosso, Daniele & Bompard, Ettore & Lo Russo, Stefano, 2023. "Modelling the geopolitical impact on risk assessment of energy supply system: The case of Italian crude oil supply," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 284(C).
    20. Xiaolei Sun & Jun Hao & Jianping Li, 2022. "Multi-objective optimization of crude oil-supply portfolio based on interval prediction data," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 309(2), pages 611-639, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:sorede:v:35:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1134_s1075700724010064. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.