IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/scient/v130y2025i3d10.1007_s11192-025-05263-9.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The university research assessment dilemma: a decision support system for the next evaluation campaigns

Author

Listed:
  • Paolo Fantozzi

    (LUMSA University)

  • Valerio Ficcadenti

    (London South Bank University - Business School)

  • Maurizio Naldi

    (LUMSA University)

Abstract

Our study examines the UK’s Research Excellence Framework 2021 employing an algorithmic method to mimic its outcomes (expressed by their panel experts) and introduce a decision support system for evaluating research outputs. Using CrossRef, Scopus databases, and the Chartered Association of Business Schools’ journal classification, we assessed bibliometric features, finding the citation-based algorithm most effective in producing results close to the ones resulting from the REF panellists. Simulating panellists manually adjusting algorithmic paper classifications, our results closely align with actual evaluations, demonstrating the potential of algorithms to augment human assessments. We also show that the Grade Point Average metric may lead to evaluations that are far from those of panellists and should be avoided.

Suggested Citation

  • Paolo Fantozzi & Valerio Ficcadenti & Maurizio Naldi, 2025. "The university research assessment dilemma: a decision support system for the next evaluation campaigns," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 130(3), pages 1617-1658, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:scient:v:130:y:2025:i:3:d:10.1007_s11192-025-05263-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s11192-025-05263-9
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11192-025-05263-9
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11192-025-05263-9?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wagner, Gerit & Prester, Julian & Roche, Maria & Schryen, Guido & Benlian, Alexander & Paré, Guy & Templier, Mathieu, 2021. "Which factors affect the scientific impact of review papers in IS research? A scientometric study," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 125255, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    2. Igor Podlubny, 2005. "Comparison of scientific impact expressed by the number of citations in different fields of science," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 64(1), pages 95-99, July.
    3. Bryce, Cormac & Dowling, Michael & Lucey, Brian, 2020. "The journal quality perception gap," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(5).
    4. Adilson Marcos Montefusco & Felipe Parra Nascimento & Luiz Ubirajara Sennes & Ricardo Ferreira Bento & Rui Imamura, 2019. "Influence of international authorship on citations in Brazilian medical journals: a bibliometric analysis," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 119(3), pages 1487-1496, June.
    5. Mehmet Pinar, 2020. "It is not all about performance: Importance of the funding formula in the allocation of performance-based research funding in England," Research Evaluation, Oxford University Press, vol. 29(1), pages 100-119.
    6. Ali Mohammadi & Chiara Franzoni, 2014. "Inventor's Knowledge Set as the Antecedent of Patent Importance," Industry and Innovation, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 65-87, January.
    7. O. Mryglod & R. Kenna & Yu. Holovatch & B. Berche, 2015. "Predicting results of the research excellence framework using departmental h-index: revisited," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 104(3), pages 1013-1017, September.
    8. Matthew E Falagas & Angeliki Zarkali & Drosos E Karageorgopoulos & Vangelis Bardakas & Michael N Mavros, 2013. "The Impact of Article Length on the Number of Future Citations: A Bibliometric Analysis of General Medicine Journals," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(2), pages 1-8, February.
    9. Daniele Checchi & Alberto Ciolfi & Gianni De Fraja & Irene Mazzotta & Stefano Verzillo, 2021. "Have you Read This? An Empirical Comparison of the British REF Peer Review and the Italian VQR Bibliometric Algorithm," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 88(352), pages 1107-1129, October.
    10. O. Mryglod & R. Kenna & Yu. Holovatch & B. Berche, 2015. "Predicting results of the Research Excellence Framework using departmental h-index," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 102(3), pages 2165-2180, March.
    11. repec:plo:pone00:0190337 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Gobinda Chowdhury & Kushwanth Koya & Pete Philipson, 2016. "Measuring the Impact of Research: Lessons from the UK’s Research Excellence Framework 2014," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(6), pages 1-15, June.
    13. Giovanni Abramo & Ciriaco Andrea D’Angelo & Emanuela Reale, 2019. "Peer review versus bibliometrics: Which method better predicts the scholarly impact of publications?," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 121(1), pages 537-554, October.
    14. Geuna, Aldo & Piolatto, Matteo, 2016. "Research assessment in the UK and Italy: Costly and difficult, but probably worth it (at least for a while)," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 260-271.
    15. repec:plo:pone00:0179722 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Mehmet Pinar & Emre Unlu, 2020. "Determinants of quality of research environment: An assessment of the environment submissions in the UK’s Research Excellence Framework in 2014," Research Evaluation, Oxford University Press, vol. 29(3), pages 231-244.
    17. Mingers, John & Leydesdorff, Loet, 2015. "A review of theory and practice in scientometrics," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 246(1), pages 1-19.
    18. Gianni De Fraja & Giovanni Facchini & John Gathergood, 2019. "Academic salaries and public evaluation of university research: Evidence from the UK Research Excellence Framework," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 34(99), pages 523-583.
    19. Han Zheng & L. G. Pee & Dan Zhang, 2021. "Societal impact of research: a text mining study of impact types," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 126(9), pages 7397-7417, September.
    20. Shahd Al-Janabi & Lee Wei Lim & Luca Aquili, 2021. "Development of a tool to accurately predict UK REF funding allocation," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 126(9), pages 8049-8062, September.
    21. Linton, O. B. & Xu, E., 2022. "Auditing the Auditors: An evaluation of the REF2021 Output Results," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2266, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    22. Lloyd D Balbuena, 2018. "The UK Research Excellence Framework and the Matthew effect: Insights from machine learning," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(11), pages 1-13, November.
    23. Iman Tahamtan & Askar Safipour Afshar & Khadijeh Ahamdzadeh, 2016. "Factors affecting number of citations: a comprehensive review of the literature," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 107(3), pages 1195-1225, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Morgan-Thomas, Anna & Tsoukas, Serafeim & Dudau, Adina & Gąska, Paweł, 2024. "Beyond declarations: Metrics, rankings and responsible assessment," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(10).
    2. Kayvan Kousha & Mike Thelwall, 2024. "Factors associating with or predicting more cited or higher quality journal articles: An Annual Review of Information Science and Technology (ARIST) paper," Journal of the Association for Information Science & Technology, Association for Information Science & Technology, vol. 75(3), pages 215-244, March.
    3. Shahd Al-Janabi & Lee Wei Lim & Luca Aquili, 2021. "Development of a tool to accurately predict UK REF funding allocation," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 126(9), pages 8049-8062, September.
    4. Bornmann, Lutz & Haunschild, Robin & Mutz, Rüdiger, 2020. "Should citations be field-normalized in evaluative bibliometrics? An empirical analysis based on propensity score matching," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(4).
    5. Daniele Checchi & Alberto Ciolfi & Gianni De Fraja & Irene Mazzotta & Stefano Verzillo, 2021. "Have you Read This? An Empirical Comparison of the British REF Peer Review and the Italian VQR Bibliometric Algorithm," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 88(352), pages 1107-1129, October.
    6. Banal-Estañol, Albert & Jofre-Bonet, Mireia & Iori, Giulia & Maynou, Laia & Tumminello, Michele & Vassallo, Pietro, 2023. "Performance-based research funding: Evidence from the largest natural experiment worldwide," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(6).
    7. Thelwall, Mike & Kousha, Kayvan & Stuart, Emma & Makita, Meiko & Abdoli, Mahshid & Wilson, Paul & Levitt, Jonathan, 2023. "Do bibliometrics introduce gender, institutional or interdisciplinary biases into research evaluations?," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(8).
    8. Giovanni Abramo & Ciriaco Andrea D’Angelo & Emanuela Reale, 2019. "Peer review versus bibliometrics: Which method better predicts the scholarly impact of publications?," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 121(1), pages 537-554, October.
    9. Raminta Pranckutė, 2021. "Web of Science (WoS) and Scopus: The Titans of Bibliographic Information in Today’s Academic World," Publications, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-59, March.
    10. Basso, Antonella & di Tollo, Giacomo, 2022. "Prediction of UK research excellence framework assessment by the departmental h-index," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 296(3), pages 1036-1049.
    11. Kofi A. A-O. Agyei-Henaku & Charlotte Badu-Prah & Francis Srofenyoh & Ferguson K. Gidiglo & Akua Agyeiwaa-Afrane & Justice G. Djokoto, 2024. "Citations of Publications on Foreign Direct Investments into Agribusiness: Nature, Variability and Drivers," SAGE Open, , vol. 14(1), pages 21582440241, February.
    12. Mehdi Rhaiem & Nabil Amara, 2020. "Determinants of research efficiency in Canadian business schools: evidence from scholar-level data," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 125(1), pages 53-99, October.
    13. Mingyang Wang & Zhenyu Wang & Guangsheng Chen, 2019. "Which can better predict the future success of articles? Bibliometric indices or alternative metrics," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 119(3), pages 1575-1595, June.
    14. Abramo, Giovanni & D'Angelo, Ciriaco Andrea & Grilli, Leonardo, 2021. "The effects of citation-based research evaluation schemes on self-citation behavior," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 15(4).
    15. Erich Battistin & Marco Ovidi, 2022. "Rising Stars: Expert Reviews and Reputational Yardsticks in the Research Excellence Framework," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 89(356), pages 830-848, October.
    16. James Tooley & Barrie Craven, 2018. "Private Sector Alternatives to the Research Excellence Framework for University League Tables," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(3), pages 434-443, October.
    17. Alberto Baccini & Giuseppe De Nicolao, 2016. "Do they agree? Bibliometric evaluation versus informed peer review in the Italian research assessment exercise," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 108(3), pages 1651-1671, September.
    18. Sánchez-Pérez, Manuel & Marín-Carrillo, María Belén & Segovia-López, Cristina & Terán-Yépez, Eduardo, 2025. "Bibliometric articles in business and management: Factors affecting production and scholarly impact," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
    19. Yurij L. Katchanov & Yulia V. Markova, 2017. "The “space of physics journals”: topological structure and the Journal Impact Factor," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 113(1), pages 313-333, October.
    20. Martorell Cunil, Onofre & Otero González, Luis & Durán Santomil, Pablo & Mulet Forteza, Carlos, 2023. "How to accomplish a highly cited paper in the tourism, leisure and hospitality field," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:scient:v:130:y:2025:i:3:d:10.1007_s11192-025-05263-9. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.