Inventory and demand management for FMCG companies by investigating SCM uncertainty causes and operational solutions

The impact of uncertainty on the efficiency of supply chain management is a significant factor that must be considered. This requires an understanding of the underlying causes of uncertainty and the implementation of appropriate strategies to address them. Furthermore, this can lead to an improvement in material and information flow as well as an enhancement in liquidity. The present study is being conducted in two phases: a qualitative and a quantitative phase. The objective of the qualitative phase is to identify the underlying causes of uncertainty through library research. In the quantitative phase, our research contributes to the existing literature by combining the Analytic Hierarchy Process and Cognitive Maps approaches to identify the relationships between the sources of uncertainty at each level of the Fast-moving Consumer Goods supply chain. The results revealed nine effective sources of uncertainty in the supply chain. Although the Analytic Hierarchy Process questionnaire is not without its shortcomings, including the potential for biased expert opinion, we have implemented measures to mitigate these issues and improve the reliability of the questionnaire. Moreover, experts have identified potential solutions to mitigate uncertainty in a supply chain. These include conducting a comprehensive assessment, developing contingency plans and protocols, implementing technology solutions, investing in training, and focusing on customer preferences.