IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/portec/v3y2004i2d10.1007_s10258-004-0035-x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Resource price trends and development prospects

Author

Listed:
  • Kirk Hamilton

    (The World Bank)

  • Katharine Bolt

    (University of East Anglia)

Abstract

. If natural resource prices follow exogenous paths, then future resource price changes must be reflected in current measures of resource depletion, as shown by Vincent et al. (1997). This result is extended to the measurement of income and saving in a small resource exporting economy. A precise formula for net (genuine) saving is derived when resource prices grow exogenously at the international interest rate. Empirical results are presented for over 100 countries and a dozen resource commodities, using historical real price trends to forecast future prices. Reductions in saving in excess of 1% of GNI are observed for over 20 countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Kirk Hamilton & Katharine Bolt, 2004. "Resource price trends and development prospects," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 3(2), pages 85-97, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:portec:v:3:y:2004:i:2:d:10.1007_s10258-004-0035-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s10258-004-0035-x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10258-004-0035-x
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10258-004-0035-x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2010. "Why do many resource-rich countries have negative genuine saving?: Anticipation of better times or rapacious rent seeking," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 28-44, January.
    2. Nick Hanley & Louis Dupuy & Eoin McLaughlin, 2015. "Genuine Savings And Sustainability," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(4), pages 779-806, September.
    3. Hamilton, Kirk & Atkinson, Giles, 2013. "Resource discoveries, learning, and national income accounting," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6505, The World Bank.
    4. Frederick van der Ploeg, 2007. "Genuine Saving and the Voracity Effect," Economics Working Papers ECO2007/38, European University Institute.
    5. Youmanli Ouoba, 2023. "Testing the necessary conditions for sustainability in the mining sector in Burkina Faso," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 36(1), pages 1-12, January.
    6. Kirk Hamilton & John Hartwick, 2008. "Oil Stock Discovery And Dutch Disease," Working Paper 1163, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    7. Rintaro Yamaguchi & Masayuki Sato & Kazuhiro Ueta, 2016. "Measuring Regional Wealth and Assessing Sustainable Development: An Application to a Disaster-Torn Region in Japan," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 129(1), pages 365-389, October.
    8. Mardones, Cristian & del Rio, Ricardo, 2019. "Correction of Chilean GDP for natural capital depreciation and environmental degradation caused by copper mining," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 143-152.
    9. Ferreira, Susana & Vincent, Jeffrey R, 2005. "Genuine Savings: Leading Indicator of Sustainable Development?," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(3), pages 737-754, April.
    10. Frederick Ploeg, 2011. "Rapacious Resource Depletion, Excessive Investment and Insecure Property Rights: A Puzzle," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 48(1), pages 105-128, January.
    11. Kirk Hamilton & Giovanni Ruta & Liaila Tajibaeva, 2006. "Capital Accumulation and Resource Depletion: A Hartwick Rule Counterfactual," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 34(4), pages 517-533, August.
    12. Yamaguchi, Rintaro & Managi, Shunsuke, 2019. "Backward- and Forward-looking Shadow Prices in Inclusive Wealth Accounting: An Example of Renewable Energy Capital," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 337-349.
    13. Frederick Van der Ploeg, 2010. "Rapacious Resource Depletion, Excessive Investment and Insecure Property Rights," CESifo Working Paper Series 2981, CESifo.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:portec:v:3:y:2004:i:2:d:10.1007_s10258-004-0035-x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.