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A mathematical model for predicting length of postoperative intensive care requirement following cardiac surgery in an Indian hospital

Author

Listed:
  • Goutam Dutta

    (Indian Institute of Management)

  • Ajay Naik

    (CIMS Hospital)

  • Dipa Gosai

    (Shri K. K. Shastri Government Commerce College)

  • Priyanko Ghosh

    (Indian Institute of Management)

Abstract

Intensive care unit (ICU) is a critical resource in a hospital, especially in developing countries such as India. The length of ICU stay after a cardiac surgery is an important variable for effective use of this critical resource. In this context, a predictive model can help a hospital to make optimum use of its ICU occupancy. A study was thus conducted on ICU patients and data gather over a 1-year period in a hospital in India. The critical factors for prolonged ICU stay (more than 72 h) were identified using univariate and multivariate logistic regression and a predictive index was built based on model development set. The predictive index was tested on a validation set and the mean length of ICU stay appeared to increase with an increase in the risk score. In addition, the risk score was tested in case of mortality. Efficient use of the ICU facility is possible with the help of this predictive index.

Suggested Citation

  • Goutam Dutta & Ajay Naik & Dipa Gosai & Priyanko Ghosh, 2021. "A mathematical model for predicting length of postoperative intensive care requirement following cardiac surgery in an Indian hospital," OPSEARCH, Springer;Operational Research Society of India, vol. 58(2), pages 330-350, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:opsear:v:58:y:2021:i:2:d:10.1007_s12597-020-00480-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s12597-020-00480-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kim, Seung-Chul & Horowitz, Ira & Young, Karl K. & Buckley, Thomas A., 1999. "Analysis of capacity management of the intensive care unit in a hospital," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 36-46, May.
    2. Ridge, J. C. & Jones, S. K. & Nielsen, M. S. & Shahani, A. K., 1998. "Capacity planning for intensive care units," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 105(2), pages 346-355, March.
    3. Vohra Seema & Dutta, Goutam & Ghosh D K, 2006. "Capacity Management of Intensive Care Units in a multi-specialty Hospital in India," IIMA Working Papers WP2006-07-04, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
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