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Analysis of human risks due to dam-break floods—part 1: a new model based on Bayesian networks

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  • M. Peng
  • L. Zhang

Abstract

Dam breaks have catastrophic consequences for human lives. This paper presents a new human risk analysis model (HURAM) using Bayesian networks for estimating human risks due to dam-break floods. A Bayesian network is constructed according to a logic structure of loss-of-life mechanisms. The nodes (parameters) and the arcs (inter-relationships) of the network are quantified with historical data, existing models and physical analyses. A dataset of 343 dam-failure cases with records of fatality is compiled for this purpose. Comparison between two existing models and the new model is made to test the new model. Finally, sensitivity analysis is conducted to identify the important parameters that lead to loss of life. The new model is able to take into account a large number of important parameters and their inter-relationships in a systematic structure; include the uncertainties of these parameters and their inter-relationships; incorporate information derived from physical analysis, empirical models and historical data; and update the predictions when information in specific cases is available. The application of this model to the study of human risks in a specific dam-break case is presented in a companion paper. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2012

Suggested Citation

  • M. Peng & L. Zhang, 2012. "Analysis of human risks due to dam-break floods—part 1: a new model based on Bayesian networks," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 64(1), pages 903-933, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:64:y:2012:i:1:p:903-933
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-012-0275-5
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    1. Aimilia Pistrika & Sebastiaan Jonkman, 2010. "Damage to residential buildings due to flooding of New Orleans after hurricane Katrina," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 54(2), pages 413-434, August.
    2. S. Jonkman & J. Vrijling & A. Vrouwenvelder, 2008. "Methods for the estimation of loss of life due to floods: a literature review and a proposal for a new method," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 46(3), pages 353-389, September.
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    1. Dongjing Huang & Zhongbo Yu & Yiping Li & Dawei Han & Lili Zhao & Qi Chu, 2017. "Calculation method and application of loss of life caused by dam break in China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 85(1), pages 39-57, January.
    2. Gamse, Sonja & Zhou, Wan-Huan & Tan, Fang & Yuen, Ka-Veng & Oberguggenberger, Michael, 2018. "Hydrostatic-season-time model updating using Bayesian model class selection," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 40-50.
    3. Mohammad Amin Hariri-Ardebili & Upmanu Lall, 2021. "Superposed Natural Hazards and Pandemics: Breaking Dams, Floods, and COVID-19," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-27, August.
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    5. Pengxia Zhao & Tie Li & Biao Wang & Ming Li & Yu Wang & Xiahui Guo & Yue Yu, 2022. "The Scenario Construction and Evolution Method of Casualties in Liquid Ammonia Leakage Based on Bayesian Network," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(24), pages 1-22, December.
    6. Xingbo Zhou & Zuyu Chen & Jianping Zhou & Xinlei Guo & Xiaohu Du & Qiang Zhang, 2020. "A quantitative risk analysis model for cascade reservoirs overtopping: principle and application," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 104(1), pages 249-277, October.
    7. Alessandro Pagano & Raffaele Giordano & Ivan Portoghese & Umberto Fratino & Michele Vurro, 2014. "A Bayesian vulnerability assessment tool for drinking water mains under extreme events," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 74(3), pages 2193-2227, December.
    8. Hui Hu & Jianfeng Zhang & Tao Li & Jie Yang, 2020. "A simplified mathematical model for the dam-breach hydrograph for three reservoir geometries following a sudden full dam break," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 102(3), pages 1515-1540, July.
    9. Wang, Te & Li, Zongkun & Ge, Wei & Zhang, Hua & Zhang, Yadong & Sun, Heqiang & Jiao, Yutie, 2023. "Risk consequence assessment of dam breach in cascade reservoirs considering risk transmission and superposition," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 265(C).
    10. Wei Ge & Zongkun Li & Wei Li & Meimei Wu & Juanjuan Li & Yipeng Pan, 2020. "Risk evaluation of dam-break environmental impacts based on the set pair analysis and cloud model," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 104(2), pages 1641-1653, November.
    11. Rui Liu & Yun Chen & Jianping Wu & Lei Gao & Damian Barrett & Tingbao Xu & Xiaojuan Li & Linyi Li & Chang Huang & Jia Yu, 2017. "Integrating Entropy‐Based Naïve Bayes and GIS for Spatial Evaluation of Flood Hazard," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(4), pages 756-773, April.
    12. Guanjie He & Junrui Chai & Yuan Qin & Zengguang Xu & Shouyi Li, 2020. "Coupled Model of Variable Fuzzy Sets and the Analytic Hierarchy Process and its Application to the Social and Environmental Impact Evaluation of Dam Breaks," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(9), pages 2677-2697, July.
    13. El-Awady, Ahmed & Ponnambalam, Kumaraswamy, 2021. "Integration of simulation and Markov Chains to support Bayesian Networks for probabilistic failure analysis of complex systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    14. Chi-Feng Chen & Chung-Ming Liu, 2014. "The definition of urban stormwater tolerance threshold and its conceptual estimation: an example from Taiwan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 73(2), pages 173-190, September.

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