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A modelling approach for estimating the frequency of sea level extremes and the impact of climate change in southeast Australia

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  • K. McInnes

    ()

  • I. Macadam
  • G. Hubbert
  • J. O’Grady

Abstract

An efficient approach for evaluating storm tide return levels along the southeastern coastline of Australia under present and future climate conditions is described. Storm surge height probabilities for the present climate are estimated using hydrodynamic model simulations of surges identified in recent tide gauge records. Tides are then accounted for using a joint probability method. Storm tide height return levels obtained in this way are similar to those obtained from the direct analysis of tide gauge records. The impact of climate change on extreme sea levels is explored by adding a variety of estimates of mean sea level rise and by forcing the model with modified wind data. It is shown that climate change has the potential to reduce average recurrence intervals of present climate 1 in 100 year storm tide levels along much of the northern Bass Strait coast to between 1 and 2 years by the year 2070. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2009

Suggested Citation

  • K. McInnes & I. Macadam & G. Hubbert & J. O’Grady, 2009. "A modelling approach for estimating the frequency of sea level extremes and the impact of climate change in southeast Australia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 51(1), pages 115-137, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:51:y:2009:i:1:p:115-137
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-009-9383-2
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11069-009-9383-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. K. Mcinnes & K. Walsh & G. Hubbert & T. Beer, 2003. "Impact of Sea-level Rise and Storm Surges on a Coastal Community," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 30(2), pages 187-207, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Yemshanov, Denys & Koch, Frank H. & Lu, Bo & Lyons, D. Barry & Prestemon, Jeffrey P. & Scarr, Taylor & Koehler, Klaus, 2014. "There is no silver bullet: The value of diversification in planning invasive species surveillance," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 61-72.
    2. Keqi Zhang & Yuepeng Li & Huiqing Liu & Hongzhou Xu & Jian Shen, 2013. "Comparison of three methods for estimating the sea level rise effect on storm surge flooding," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 118(2), pages 487-500, May.

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