IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v120y2024i5d10.1007_s11069-024-06403-9.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Projections patterns of precipitation concentration under climate change scenarios

Author

Listed:
  • Saeideh Ashrafi

    (Zanjan University)

  • Ali Reza Karbalaee

    (Kharazmi University)

  • Muhammad Kamangar

    (Zanjan University)

Abstract

Precipitation is the most important climate element in supplying Iran’s water resources. Its regular temporal distribution will guarantee the sustainability of water resources. Estimating precipitation behavior in near future will improve managing water resources. Therefore, the current study aimed to examine precipitation regulation in near future (2021–2040). To this end, five models–namely GFDL-ESM4, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, IPSL-CM6A-LR, MRI-ESM2, and UKESM1-0-LL–along with the data of 95 synoptic stations were used. Upon estimating precipitation by the use of these models, the estimated data were ensemble using a multi-model ensemble model, which was based on the correlation-weighted average. Assessing the estimation error indicated the reduction of error rate in the ensemble data. Precipitation concentration index (PCI), precipitation concentration period (PCP), and precipitation concentration degree (PCD) were used to study precipitation regulation in near future. The results suggested more precipitation regulation in the north, northwest, and northeast of Iran, while more precipitation concentration was observed in southern parts of Iran. The precipitation concentration in southern parts of Iran indicates lower precipitation regulation in this area.

Suggested Citation

  • Saeideh Ashrafi & Ali Reza Karbalaee & Muhammad Kamangar, 2024. "Projections patterns of precipitation concentration under climate change scenarios," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 120(5), pages 4775-4788, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:120:y:2024:i:5:d:10.1007_s11069-024-06403-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-024-06403-9
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-024-06403-9
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-024-06403-9?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Subhra Sekhar Maity & Rajib Maity, 2022. "Changing Pattern of Intensity–Duration–Frequency Relationship of Precipitation due to Climate Change," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(14), pages 5371-5399, November.
    2. Tommaso Caloiero, 2014. "Analysis of daily rainfall concentration in New Zealand," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 72(2), pages 389-404, June.
    3. Mohammad Darand & Farshad Pazhoh, 2022. "Spatiotemporal changes in precipitation concentration over Iran during 1962–2019," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 173(3), pages 1-22, August.
    4. Peng Shi & Miao Wu & Simin Qu & Peng Jiang & Xueyuan Qiao & Xi Chen & Mi Zhou & Zhicai Zhang, 2015. "Spatial Distribution and Temporal Trends in Precipitation Concentration Indices for the Southwest China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(11), pages 3941-3955, September.
    5. Jianxia Chang & Hongxue Zhang & Yimin Wang & Lianpeng Zhang, 2017. "Impact of climate change on runoff and uncertainty analysis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 88(2), pages 1113-1131, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Muhammad Kamangar & Mahmud Ahmadi & Hamidreza Rabiei-Dastjerdi & Zeinab Hazbavi, 2025. "Ensemble modeling of extreme seasonal temperature trends in Iran under socio-economic scenarios," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 121(2), pages 1265-1288, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Qian Wang & Yangyang Liu & Linjing Tong & Weihong Zhou & Xiaoyu Li & Jianlong Li, 2018. "Rescaled Statistics and Wavelet Analysis on Agricultural Drought Disaster Periodic Fluctuations in China from 1950 to 2016," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-12, September.
    2. Paweł Prokop & Adam Walanus, 2017. "Impact of the Darjeeling–Bhutan Himalayan front on rainfall hazard pattern," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 89(1), pages 387-404, October.
    3. Ercan Yeşilırmak & Levent Atatanır, 2016. "Spatiotemporal variability of precipitation concentration in western Turkey," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 81(1), pages 687-704, March.
    4. Ercan Yeşilırmak & Levent Atatanır, 2016. "Spatiotemporal variability of precipitation concentration in western Turkey," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 81(1), pages 687-704, March.
    5. Panjie Qiao & Xiaojuan Wang & Wenqi Liu & Shuai Li & Yongwen Zhang & Guolin Feng & Jingfang Fan, 2025. "Synchronization patterns of extreme rainfall events in Southwest China," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 178(3), pages 1-18, March.
    6. Gerardo Núñez-González, 2020. "Analysis of the trends in precipitation and precipitation concentration in some climatological stations of Mexico from 1960 to 2010," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 104(2), pages 1747-1761, November.
    7. Shen, Chenhua, 2019. "The influence of a scaling exponent on ρDCCA: A spatial cross-correlation pattern of precipitation records over eastern China," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 516(C), pages 579-590.
    8. Albert Persaud & Geraint Day & Susham Gupta & Antonio Ventriglio & Roxanna Ruiz & Egor Chumakov & Geetha Desai & Joao Castaldelli-Maia & Julio Torales & Edgardo Juan Tolentino & Kamaldeep Bhui & Dines, 2018. "Geopolitical factors and mental health I," International Journal of Social Psychiatry, , vol. 64(8), pages 778-785, December.
    9. Noor Fadhilah Ahmad Radi & Roslinazairimah Zakaria & Julia Piantadosi & John Boland & Wan Zawiah Wan Zin & Muhammad Az-zuhri Azman, 2017. "Generating Synthetic Rainfall Total Using Multivariate Skew-t and Checkerboard Copula of Maximum Entropy," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(5), pages 1729-1744, March.
    10. Lo Magno, Giovanni L. & Ferrante, Mauro & De Cantis, Stefano, 2017. "A new index for measuring seasonality: A transportation cost approach," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 55-65.
    11. Chang, Jianxia & Wang, Xiaoyu & Li, Yunyun & Wang, Yimin & Zhang, Hongxue, 2018. "Hydropower plant operation rules optimization response to climate change," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 886-897.
    12. Cheng, Minghan & Jiao, Xiyun & Jin, Xiuliang & Li, Binbin & Liu, Kaihua & Shi, Lei, 2021. "Satellite time series data reveal interannual and seasonal spatiotemporal evapotranspiration patterns in China in response to effect factors," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    13. Richa Singh & R. Bhatla, 2025. "Assessment of rainfall variability in Ladakh amidst evolving climate," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 121(3), pages 3073-3097, February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:120:y:2024:i:5:d:10.1007_s11069-024-06403-9. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.