IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v121y2025i2d10.1007_s11069-024-06830-8.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Ensemble modeling of extreme seasonal temperature trends in Iran under socio-economic scenarios

Author

Listed:
  • Muhammad Kamangar

    (Shahid Beheshti University)

  • Mahmud Ahmadi

    (Shahid Beheshti University)

  • Hamidreza Rabiei-Dastjerdi

    (University College
    Isfahan University of Medical Sciences)

  • Zeinab Hazbavi

    (University of Mohaghegh Ardabili)

Abstract

Highlights A new ensemble model was introduced and evaluated for projecting minimum and maximum temperatures in Iran. Trends in minimum and maximum temperatures in the near term (2021–2040) were obtained using socio-economic scenarios of five models at 95 synoptic stations. The ensemble technique reduced the error of the models used in projection to an optimal extent.

Suggested Citation

  • Muhammad Kamangar & Mahmud Ahmadi & Hamidreza Rabiei-Dastjerdi & Zeinab Hazbavi, 2025. "Ensemble modeling of extreme seasonal temperature trends in Iran under socio-economic scenarios," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 121(2), pages 1265-1288, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:121:y:2025:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-024-06830-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-024-06830-8
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-024-06830-8
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-024-06830-8?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Saeideh Ashrafi & Ali Reza Karbalaee & Muhammad Kamangar, 2024. "Projections patterns of precipitation concentration under climate change scenarios," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 120(5), pages 4775-4788, March.
    2. Gopal Murali & Takuya Iwamura & Shai Meiri & Uri Roll, 2023. "Publisher Correction: Future temperature extremes threaten land vertebrates," Nature, Nature, vol. 614(7949), pages 46-46, February.
    3. Gopal Murali & Takuya Iwamura & Shai Meiri & Uri Roll, 2023. "Future temperature extremes threaten land vertebrates," Nature, Nature, vol. 615(7952), pages 461-467, March.
    4. Yi Yang & Jianping Tang, 2023. "Downscaling and uncertainty analysis of future concurrent long-duration dry and hot events in China," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(2), pages 1-25, February.
    5. Shoupeng Zhu & Fei Ge & Yi Fan & Ling Zhang & Frank Sielmann & Klaus Fraedrich & Xiefei Zhi, 2020. "Conspicuous temperature extremes over Southeast Asia: seasonal variations under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 160(3), pages 343-360, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chiara Mio & Luciana Oranges Cezarino, 2023. "Competencies for Sustainable Development Goals Accounting: Educating public management for disclosure and reporting," MANAGEMENT CONTROL, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2023(2 Suppl.), pages 133-160.
    2. Tingjiang Gan & Quanwei Liu & Danping Xu & Zhipeng He & Zhihang Zhuo, 2025. "Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Hippophae neurocarpa in China Using Biomod2 Modeling," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-17, March.
    3. Hou, Xiaojuan & Xiang, Ruojun, 2025. "Exploring the influence of extreme heat on corporate energy efficiency," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    4. Wang, Hongtian & Shan, Jinghan & Zhang, Xuemei & Nie, Pu-yan & Wang, Chan, 2025. "Labor force allocation changes triggered by extreme heat events—Evidence from China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 2142-2160.
    5. Yang Yang & Chenchen Wu & Tongrui An & Tianxiang Yue, 2024. "Characteristics of Climate Change in Poyang Lake Basin and Its Impact on Net Primary Productivity," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(21), pages 1-16, October.
    6. Hao Wu & Caihua Yang & Anze Liang & Yifeng Qin & Dobri Dunchev & Boryana Ivanova & Shengquan Che, 2024. "Urbanization and Carbon Storage Dynamics: Spatiotemporal Patterns and Socioeconomic Drivers in Shanghai," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-19, December.
    7. Andreas Schwarz Meyer & Alex L. Pigot & Cory Merow & Kristin Kaschner & Cristina Garilao & Kathleen Kesner-Reyes & Christopher H. Trisos, 2024. "Temporal dynamics of climate change exposure and opportunities for global marine biodiversity," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-13, December.
    8. Chao Li & Xing Su & Chao Fan & Jun Wang & Xiangyu Wang, 2025. "A Sustainable Circular Framework for Financing Infrastructure Climate Adaptation: Integrated Carbon Markets," Papers 2501.08004, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2025.
    9. Jiangdong Liu & Ho Kim & Masahiro Hashizume & Whanhee Lee & Yasushi Honda & Satbyul Estella Kim & Cheng He & Haidong Kan & Renjie Chen, 2025. "Nonlinear exposure-response associations of daytime, nighttime, and day-night compound heatwaves with mortality amid climate change," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-12, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:121:y:2025:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-024-06830-8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.