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Ensemble modeling of extreme seasonal temperature trends in Iran under socio-economic scenarios

Author

Listed:
  • Muhammad Kamangar

    (Shahid Beheshti University)

  • Mahmud Ahmadi

    (Shahid Beheshti University)

  • Hamidreza Rabiei-Dastjerdi

    (University College
    Isfahan University of Medical Sciences)

  • Zeinab Hazbavi

    (University of Mohaghegh Ardabili)

Abstract

Highlights A new ensemble model was introduced and evaluated for projecting minimum and maximum temperatures in Iran. Trends in minimum and maximum temperatures in the near term (2021–2040) were obtained using socio-economic scenarios of five models at 95 synoptic stations. The ensemble technique reduced the error of the models used in projection to an optimal extent.

Suggested Citation

  • Muhammad Kamangar & Mahmud Ahmadi & Hamidreza Rabiei-Dastjerdi & Zeinab Hazbavi, 2025. "Ensemble modeling of extreme seasonal temperature trends in Iran under socio-economic scenarios," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 121(2), pages 1265-1288, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:121:y:2025:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-024-06830-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-024-06830-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Shoupeng Zhu & Fei Ge & Yi Fan & Ling Zhang & Frank Sielmann & Klaus Fraedrich & Xiefei Zhi, 2020. "Conspicuous temperature extremes over Southeast Asia: seasonal variations under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 160(3), pages 343-360, June.
    2. Gopal Murali & Takuya Iwamura & Shai Meiri & Uri Roll, 2023. "Future temperature extremes threaten land vertebrates," Nature, Nature, vol. 615(7952), pages 461-467, March.
    3. Yi Yang & Jianping Tang, 2023. "Downscaling and uncertainty analysis of future concurrent long-duration dry and hot events in China," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(2), pages 1-25, February.
    4. Saeideh Ashrafi & Ali Reza Karbalaee & Muhammad Kamangar, 2024. "Projections patterns of precipitation concentration under climate change scenarios," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 120(5), pages 4775-4788, March.
    5. Gopal Murali & Takuya Iwamura & Shai Meiri & Uri Roll, 2023. "Publisher Correction: Future temperature extremes threaten land vertebrates," Nature, Nature, vol. 614(7949), pages 46-46, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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