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Methods for representing regional disaster recovery estimates: modeling approaches and assessment tools for improving emergency planning and preparedness

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  • Andrew Deelstra

    (University of Victoria)

  • David N. Bristow

    (University of Victoria)

Abstract

Earthquakes and other natural hazards can cause significant damage to structures and critical lifeline systems. To effectively prepare for disasters, planners and emergency managers can use modeling to assess the impacts that a disaster could have at a municipal and regional level. Modeling approaches are often technically complex and require a great deal of data and expertise to develop and assess. Technical assessments are immensely valuable for providing a detailed understanding of a system, but their complexity makes it challenging to provide opportunities for engagement with a variety of audiences and to compare different scenarios and their effects on a region. The work presented here seeks to demonstrate multiple assessment methods and their utility for planning purposes by using a model that tracks infrastructure system dependencies, repair times, and resource requirements. The assessment methods include developing recovery curves that can be used to assess outage effects on communities, ranking recovery times for different zones to describe areas that are relatively more or less at risk after a disaster, and comparing system recovery time to repair time to assess internal and external dependencies. This work provides an overview of the modeling approach and its representation of water, wastewater, power, and road and highway systems. A case study of a simulated earthquake and its effect on the Metro Vancouver region of British Columbia, Canada, is also presented and examples of the utility of each assessment methodology are detailed. The goal of this work is to provide additional resources for planners and policy makers so that they are equipped to make decisions that best protect their communities.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew Deelstra & David N. Bristow, 2023. "Methods for representing regional disaster recovery estimates: modeling approaches and assessment tools for improving emergency planning and preparedness," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 117(1), pages 779-802, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:117:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1007_s11069-023-05883-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-023-05883-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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