IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v112y2022i2d10.1007_s11069-022-05243-9.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Homogeneity and trend analysis of rainfall and droughts over Southeast Australia

Author

Listed:
  • Gokhan Yildirim

    (Western Sydney University)

  • Ataur Rahman

    (Water Engineering)

Abstract

This study investigates rainfall and drought characteristics in southeastern Australia (New South Wales and Victoria) using data from 45 rainfall stations. Four homogeneity tests are adopted to determine inhomogeneities in the annual total rainfall (ATR) and monthly rainfall data, namely The Pettitt test, the SNHT, the Buishand range test and the Von Neumann ratio test at significance levels of 1%, 5%, and 10%. Temporal trends in rainfall (ATR, monthly, and seasonal) and droughts are examined using autocorrelated Mann–Kendall (A-MK) trend test at 1%, 5%, and 10% significance levels. We also assess meteorological droughts by using multiple drought indices (3-, 6-, 9-, 12-, 24-, and 36-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Effective Drought Index (EDI)). Furthermore, spatial variability of temporal trends in rainfall and drought are investigated through interpolation of Sen’s slope estimator. The results represent an increasing trend in ATR between 1920 and 2019. However, southeast Australia is highly dominated by a significant negative trend in the medium term between 1970 and 2019. Winter is found to be dominated by a significantly negative trend, whereas summer and spring seasons are dominated by a positive trend. April is detected as the driest month according to magnitude of Sen’s slope and the A-MK test result. Positive trends on droughts are observed at inner parts of the study area, whereas a negative trend is detected in the south, southeast, and northeast of the study area based on SPIs and EDI. The findings of this study help to understand changes in rainfall and droughts in southeastern Australia.

Suggested Citation

  • Gokhan Yildirim & Ataur Rahman, 2022. "Homogeneity and trend analysis of rainfall and droughts over Southeast Australia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 112(2), pages 1657-1683, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:112:y:2022:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-022-05243-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-022-05243-9
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-022-05243-9
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-022-05243-9?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ronald L. Wasserstein & Allen L. Schirm & Nicole A. Lazar, 2019. "Moving to a World Beyond “p," The American Statistician, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 73(S1), pages 1-19, March.
    2. Anurag Malik & Anil Kumar & Ozgur Kisi & Najeebullah Khan & Sinan Q. Salih & Zaher Mundher Yaseen, 2021. "Analysis of dry and wet climate characteristics at Uttarakhand (India) using effective drought index," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 105(2), pages 1643-1662, January.
    3. Anthony S. Kiem & Fiona Johnson & Seth Westra & Albert Dijk & Jason P. Evans & Alison O’Donnell & Alexandra Rouillard & Cameron Barr & Jonathan Tyler & Mark Thyer & Doerte Jakob & Fitsum Woldemeskel &, 2016. "Natural hazards in Australia: droughts," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 139(1), pages 37-54, November.
    4. Sheng Yue & ChunYuan Wang, 2004. "The Mann-Kendall Test Modified by Effective Sample Size to Detect Trend in Serially Correlated Hydrological Series," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 18(3), pages 201-218, June.
    5. Andrew D. King & Andy J. Pitman & Benjamin J. Henley & Anna M. Ukkola & Josephine R. Brown, 2020. "The role of climate variability in Australian drought," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 10(3), pages 177-179, March.
    6. A. Yilmaz & B. Perera, 2015. "Spatiotemporal Trend Analysis of Extreme Rainfall Events in Victoria, Australia," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(12), pages 4465-4480, September.
    7. Ashoke Basistha & D. Arya & N. Goel, 2008. "Spatial Distribution of Rainfall in Indian Himalayas – A Case Study of Uttarakhand Region," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 22(10), pages 1325-1346, October.
    8. Raktima Dey & Sophie C. Lewis & Julie M. Arblaster & Nerilie J. Abram, 2019. "A review of past and projected changes in Australia's rainfall," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 10(3), May.
    9. Pawan S. Wable & Madan K. Jha & Ankit Shekhar, 2019. "Comparison of Drought Indices in a Semi-Arid River Basin of India," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(1), pages 75-102, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Eric Mensah Mortey & Thompson Annor & Joël Arnault & Maman Maarouhi Inoussa & Saïdou Madougou & Harald Kunstmann & Emmanuel Kwesi Nyantakyi, 2023. "Interactions between Climate and Land Cover Change over West Africa," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-27, January.
    2. Diana Šarauskienė & Darius Jakimavičius & Aldona Jurgelėnaitė & Jūratė Kriaučiūnienė, 2024. "Warming Climate-Induced Changes in Lithuanian River Ice Phenology," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-18, January.
    3. Wangyuyang Zhai & Zhoufeng Wang & Youcan Feng & Lijun Xue & Zhenjie Ma & Lin Tian & Hongliang Sun, 2023. "Developing the Actual Precipitation Probability Distribution Based on the Complete Daily Series," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(17), pages 1-19, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gokhan Yildirim & Ataur Rahman, 2022. "Spatiotemporal meteorological drought assessment: a case study in south-east Australia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 111(1), pages 305-332, March.
    2. Timothy Clune & Ana Horta, 2020. "Climate Variation—A Perceived Drag on Rural Business Performance," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-16, December.
    3. Ismallianto Isia & Tony Hadibarata & Muhammad Noor Hazwan Jusoh & Rajib Kumar Bhattacharjya & Noor Fifinatasha Shahedan & Aissa Bouaissi & Norma Latif Fitriyani & Muhammad Syafrudin, 2022. "Drought Analysis Based on Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index and Standardized Precipitation Index in Sarawak, Malaysia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-18, December.
    4. Jian Tang & Xin-An Yin & Pan Yang & ZhiFeng Yang, 2014. "Assessment of Contributions of Climatic Variation and Human Activities to Streamflow Changes in the Lancang River, China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(10), pages 2953-2966, August.
    5. Miao Fang & Xin Li & Hans W. Chen & Deliang Chen, 2022. "Arctic amplification modulated by Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and greenhouse forcing on multidecadal to century scales," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-8, December.
    6. Mansoor Ahmed & Ghulam Hussain Dars & Suhail Ahmed & Nir Y. Krakauer, 2023. "Analyzing drought trends over Sindh Province, Pakistan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 119(1), pages 643-661, October.
    7. Xiaqing Feng & Guangxin Zhang & Xiongrui Yin, 2011. "Hydrological Responses to Climate Change in Nenjiang River Basin, Northeastern China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(2), pages 677-689, January.
    8. L. Vergni & F. Todisco & B. Lena, 2021. "Evaluation of the similarity between drought indices by correlation analysis and Cohen's Kappa test in a Mediterranean area," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 108(2), pages 2187-2209, September.
    9. Yuquan Qu & Diego G. Miralles & Sander Veraverbeke & Harry Vereecken & Carsten Montzka, 2023. "Wildfire precursors show complementary predictability in different timescales," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.
    10. Gruener, Sven, 2019. "An empirical study on Internet-based false news stories: experiences, problem awareness, and responsibilities," SocArXiv xbez9, Center for Open Science.
    11. Shekhar, Ankit & Shapiro, Charles A., 2022. "Prospective crop yield and income return based on a retrospective analysis of a long-term rainfed agriculture experiment in Nebraska," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    12. Maria-Lavinia FLOREA & Anca BORZA, 2019. "Individual Strategies For Achieving Work-Life Balance €“ A Case Study On Romanian Workers," Proceedings of the INTERNATIONAL MANAGEMENT CONFERENCE, Faculty of Management, Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 13(1), pages 845-855, November.
    13. Alisson Lopes Rodrigues & Lineu Neiva Rodrigues & Guilherme Fernandes Marques & Pedro Manuel Villa, 2023. "Simulation Model to Assess the Water Dynamics in Small Reservoirs," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(5), pages 2019-2038, March.
    14. Hüseyin Yavuz & Saffet Erdoğan, 2012. "Spatial Analysis of Monthly and Annual Precipitation Trends in Turkey," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(3), pages 609-621, February.
    15. Thomas R. Dyckman & Stephen A. Zeff, 2019. "Important Issues in Statistical Testing and Recommended Improvements in Accounting Research," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-11, May.
    16. Grüner Sven, 2020. "Sample Size Calculation in Economic Experiments," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 240(6), pages 791-823, December.
    17. Dimitrios Myronidis & Konstantinos Ioannou & Dimitrios Fotakis & Gerald Dörflinger, 2018. "Streamflow and Hydrological Drought Trend Analysis and Forecasting in Cyprus," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(5), pages 1759-1776, March.
    18. Mark C. Quigley & Januka Attanayake & Andrew King & Fabian Prideaux, 2020. "A multi-hazards earth science perspective on the COVID-19 pandemic: the potential for concurrent and cascading crises," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 40(2), pages 199-215, June.
    19. Peng Jiang & Zhongbo Yu & Mahesh R. Gautam & Kumud Acharya, 2016. "The Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Extreme Precipitation Events in the Western United States," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(13), pages 4807-4821, October.
    20. repec:thr:techub:10026:y:2021:i:1:p:761-770 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Wan-Jiun Chen, 2017. "Is the Green Solow Model Valid for $$\hbox {CO}_{2}$$ CO 2 Emissions in the European Union?," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 67(1), pages 23-45, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:112:y:2022:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-022-05243-9. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.