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The inflationary bias of real uncertainty and the harmonic Fisher equation

Author

Listed:
  • Ioannis Karatzas
  • Martin Shubik
  • William Sudderth
  • John Geanakoplos

Abstract

We argue that real uncertainty itself causes long-run nominal inflation. Consider an infinite horizon cash-in-advance economy with a representative agent and real uncertainty, modeled by independent, identically distributed endowments. Suppose the central bank fixes the nominal rate of interest. We show that the equilibrium long-run rate of inflation is strictly higher, on almost every path of endowment realizations, than it would be if the endowments were constant. Indeed, we present an explicit formula for the long-run rate of inflation, based on the famous Fisher equation. The Fisher equation says the short-run rate of inflation should equal the nominal rate of interest less the real rate of interest. The long-run Fisher equation for our stochastic economy is similar, but with the rate of inflation replaced by the harmonic mean of the growth rate of money. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin/Heidelberg 2006

Suggested Citation

  • Ioannis Karatzas & Martin Shubik & William Sudderth & John Geanakoplos, 2006. "The inflationary bias of real uncertainty and the harmonic Fisher equation," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 28(3), pages 481-512, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:joecth:v:28:y:2006:i:3:p:481-512
    DOI: 10.1007/s00199-005-0648-z
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Juergen Huber & Martin Shubik & Shyam Sunder, 2008. "The Value of Fiat Money with an Outside Bank: An Experimental Game," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1675, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Apr 2010.
    2. Ioannis Karatzas & Martin Shubik & William D. Sudderth, 2008. "Financial Control of a Competitive Economy without Randomness," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1681, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    3. Juergen Huber & Martin Shubik & Shyam Sunder, 2009. "Default Penalty as a Disciplinary and Selection Mechanism in Presence of Multiple Equilibria," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1730, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    4. Huber, Jürgen & Shubik, Martin & Sunder, Shyam, 2014. "Sufficiency of an outside bank and a default penalty to support the value of fiat money: Experimental evidence," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 317-337.
    5. Barbara Bennie, 2009. "Strategic market games with cyclic endowments," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 209-230, March.
    6. Huber, Juergen & Shubik, Martin & Sunder, Shyam, 2016. "Default penalty as a selection mechanism among multiple equilibria," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(C), pages 20-38.
    7. Juergen Huber & Martin Shubik & Shyam Sunder, 2011. "Financing of Public Goods through Taxation in a General Equilibrium Economy: Theory and Experimental Evidence," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1830, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    8. Huber, Juergen & Shubik, Martin & Sunder, Shyam, 2018. "Financing of public goods through taxation in a general equilibrium economy: Experimental evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 171-188.
    9. I. Karatzas & M. Shubik & W. Sudderth, 2006. "Production, interest, and saving in deterministic economies with additive endowments," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 29(3), pages 525-548, November.
    10. Geanakoplos, John & Karatzas, Ioannis & Shubik, Martin & Sudderth, William D., 2014. "Inflationary equilibrium in a stochastic economy with independent agents," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 1-11.

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