IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/ijsaem/v16y2025i5d10.1007_s13198-025-02750-3.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A novel operational risk assessment model based on evidence reasoning for multi-objective and dynamic operational scenarios

Author

Listed:
  • Guicang Peng

    (University of Stavanger)

  • Jon T.ømmerås Selvik

    (University of Stavanger)

  • Eirik Bjorheim Abrahamsen

    (University of Stavanger)

  • Tore Markeset

    (University of Stavanger)

Abstract

Operational risk assessment (ORA) practices have traditionally focused on assessing risks within a single operational objective, often overlooking the complexities and interdependencies present in modern operational environments. This study explores the challenges of ORA within a multi-objective and dynamic context, where risks need to be balanced and integrated across varied operational objectives and decision gates. Furthermore, the study addresses the challenges posed by incomplete knowledge and conflicting assessments, which are prevalent in real-world ORA scenarios. Utilizing evidence reasoning (ER) as a multi-criteria decision analysis framework, the paper presents a novel ER-ORA mathematical model to aggregate individual risk beliefs across various operational objectives and decision gates dynamically. The approach resolves conflicts between individual risk assessments and quantifies overall uncertainties and conflicts of the assessment. The ER-ORA model is validated through a dataset reflecting the aforementioned ORA challenges. The paper conclude on the ER-ORA’s functionality and propose future research directions.

Suggested Citation

  • Guicang Peng & Jon T.ømmerås Selvik & Eirik Bjorheim Abrahamsen & Tore Markeset, 2025. "A novel operational risk assessment model based on evidence reasoning for multi-objective and dynamic operational scenarios," International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management, Springer;The Society for Reliability, Engineering Quality and Operations Management (SREQOM),India, and Division of Operation and Maintenance, Lulea University of Technology, Sweden, vol. 16(5), pages 1711-1727, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:ijsaem:v:16:y:2025:i:5:d:10.1007_s13198-025-02750-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s13198-025-02750-3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s13198-025-02750-3
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s13198-025-02750-3?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:ijsaem:v:16:y:2025:i:5:d:10.1007_s13198-025-02750-3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.