IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/finsto/v25y2021i4d10.1007_s00780-021-00460-9.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Scenario-based risk evaluation

Author

Listed:
  • Ruodu Wang

    (University of Waterloo)

  • Johanna F. Ziegel

    (University of Bern)

Abstract

Risk measures such as expected shortfall (ES) and value-at-risk (VaR) have been prominent in banking regulation and financial risk management. Motivated by practical considerations in the assessment and management of risks, including tractability, scenario relevance and robustness, we consider theoretical properties of scenario-based risk evaluation. We establish axiomatic characterisations of scenario-based risk measures that are comonotonic-additive or coherent, and we obtain a novel ES-based representation result. We propose several novel scenario-based risk measures, including various versions of Max-ES and Max-VaR, and study their properties. The theory is illustrated with financial data examples.

Suggested Citation

  • Ruodu Wang & Johanna F. Ziegel, 2021. "Scenario-based risk evaluation," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 725-756, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:finsto:v:25:y:2021:i:4:d:10.1007_s00780-021-00460-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s00780-021-00460-9
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00780-021-00460-9
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s00780-021-00460-9?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. R. Rockafellar & Stan Uryasev & Michael Zabarankin, 2006. "Generalized deviations in risk analysis," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 51-74, January.
    2. Yaari, Menahem E, 1987. "The Dual Theory of Choice under Risk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(1), pages 95-115, January.
    3. Jie Shen & Yi Shen & Bin Wang & Ruodu Wang, 2019. "Distributional compatibility for change of measures," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 761-794, July.
    4. Luting Li & Hao Xing, 2018. "Capital allocation under the Fundamental Review of Trading Book," Papers 1801.07358, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2019.
    5. Duffie, Darrell & Scheicher, Martin & Vuillemey, Guillaume, 2015. "Central clearing and collateral demand," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(2), pages 237-256.
    6. Paul Embrechts & Haiyan Liu & Tiantian Mao & Ruodu Wang, 2017. "Quantile-Based Risk Sharing with Heterogeneous Beliefs," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 17-65, Swiss Finance Institute, revised Jan 2018.
    7. Gilboa, Itzhak & Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Maxmin expected utility with non-unique prior," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 141-153, April.
    8. Viral Acharya & Robert Engle & Matthew Richardson, 2012. "Capital Shortfall: A New Approach to Ranking and Regulating Systemic Risks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 59-64, May.
    9. Cerreia-Vioglio, Simone & Maccheroni, Fabio & Marinacci, Massimo & Montrucchio, Luigi, 2013. "Ambiguity and robust statistics," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 148(3), pages 974-1049.
      • Simone Cerreia-Vioglio & Fabio Maccheroni & Massimo Marinacci & Luigi Montrucchio, 2011. "Ambiguity and Robust Statistics," Working Papers 382, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    10. Alexander J. McNeil & Rüdiger Frey & Paul Embrechts, 2015. "Quantitative Risk Management: Concepts, Techniques and Tools Revised edition," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 2, number 10496.
    11. Steven Kou & Xianhua Peng, 2016. "On the Measurement of Economic Tail Risk," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 64(5), pages 1056-1072, October.
    12. Paul Embrechts & Giovanni Puccetti & Ludger Rüschendorf & Ruodu Wang & Antonela Beleraj, 2014. "An Academic Response to Basel 3.5," Risks, MDPI, vol. 2(1), pages 1-24, February.
    13. Paul Embrechts & Bin Wang & Ruodu Wang, 2015. "Aggregation-robustness and model uncertainty of regulatory risk measures," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 763-790, October.
    14. Krätschmer, Volker & Schied, Alexander & Zähle, Henryk, 2017. "Domains of weak continuity of statistical functionals with a view toward robust statistics," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 1-19.
    15. Philippe Artzner & Freddy Delbaen & Jean‐Marc Eber & David Heath, 1999. "Coherent Measures of Risk," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 203-228, July.
    16. Elyès Jouini & Walter Schachermayer & Nizar Touzi, 2006. "Law Invariant Risk Measures Have the Fatou Property," Post-Print halshs-00176522, HAL.
    17. repec:dau:papers:123456789/342 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Steven Kou & Xianhua Peng & Chris C. Heyde, 2013. "External Risk Measures and Basel Accords," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 38(3), pages 393-417, August.
    19. Zaichao Du & Juan Carlos Escanciano, 2017. "Backtesting Expected Shortfall: Accounting for Tail Risk," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(4), pages 940-958, April.
    20. Mathieu Cambou & Damir Filipović, 2017. "Model Uncertainty And Scenario Aggregation," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(2), pages 534-567, April.
    21. Marcelo Brutti Righi, 2018. "A theory for combinations of risk measures," Papers 1807.01977, arXiv.org, revised May 2023.
    22. Alexander Cherny & Dilip Madan, 2009. "New Measures for Performance Evaluation," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(7), pages 2371-2406, July.
    23. Hans Föllmer & Alexander Schied, 2002. "Convex measures of risk and trading constraints," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 429-447.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yi Shen & Zachary Van Oosten & Ruodu Wang, 2024. "Partially Law-Invariant Risk Measures," Papers 2401.17265, arXiv.org.
    2. Felix-Benedikt Liebrich, 2021. "Risk sharing under heterogeneous beliefs without convexity," Papers 2108.05791, arXiv.org, revised May 2022.
    3. Shuo Gong & Yijun Hu & Linxiao Wei, 2022. "Distortion risk measures in random environments: construction and axiomatic characterization," Papers 2211.00520, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2023.
    4. Ruodu Wang & Zhenyuan Zhang, 2022. "Simultaneous Optimal Transport," Papers 2201.03483, arXiv.org, revised May 2023.
    5. Tolulope Fadina & Yang Liu & Ruodu Wang, 2021. "A Framework for Measures of Risk under Uncertainty," Papers 2110.10792, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2023.
    6. Shuo Gong & Yijun Hu & Linxiao Wei, 2022. "Risk measurement of joint risk of portfolios: a liquidity shortfall aspect," Papers 2212.04848, arXiv.org.
    7. Dejian Tian & Xunlian Wang, 2023. "Dynamic star-shaped risk measures and $g$-expectations," Papers 2305.02481, arXiv.org.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ruodu Wang & Johanna F. Ziegel, 2018. "Scenario-based Risk Evaluation," Papers 1808.07339, arXiv.org, revised May 2021.
    2. Ruodu Wang & Ričardas Zitikis, 2021. "An Axiomatic Foundation for the Expected Shortfall," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(3), pages 1413-1429, March.
    3. Ruodu Wang & Yunran Wei & Gordon E. Willmot, 2020. "Characterization, Robustness, and Aggregation of Signed Choquet Integrals," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 45(3), pages 993-1015, August.
    4. Furman, Edward & Wang, Ruodu & Zitikis, Ričardas, 2017. "Gini-type measures of risk and variability: Gini shortfall, capital allocations, and heavy-tailed risks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 70-84.
    5. Tolulope Fadina & Yang Liu & Ruodu Wang, 2021. "A Framework for Measures of Risk under Uncertainty," Papers 2110.10792, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2023.
    6. Paul Embrechts & Alexander Schied & Ruodu Wang, 2018. "Robustness in the Optimization of Risk Measures," Papers 1809.09268, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2021.
    7. Xia Han & Liyuan Lin & Ruodu Wang, 2022. "Diversification quotients: Quantifying diversification via risk measures," Papers 2206.13679, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2024.
    8. Li, Hengxin & Wang, Ruodu, 2023. "PELVE: Probability Equivalent Level of VaR and ES," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 234(1), pages 353-370.
    9. Andreas H Hamel, 2018. "Monetary Measures of Risk," Papers 1812.04354, arXiv.org.
    10. Haiyan Liu & Bin Wang & Ruodu Wang & Sheng Chao Zhuang, 2023. "Distorted optimal transport," Papers 2308.11238, arXiv.org.
    11. Steven Kou & Xianhua Peng, 2016. "On the Measurement of Economic Tail Risk," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 64(5), pages 1056-1072, October.
    12. Ruodu Wang & Yunran Wei, 2020. "Risk functionals with convex level sets," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(4), pages 1337-1367, October.
    13. Yi Shen & Zachary Van Oosten & Ruodu Wang, 2024. "Partially Law-Invariant Risk Measures," Papers 2401.17265, arXiv.org.
    14. Fissler Tobias & Ziegel Johanna F., 2021. "On the elicitability of range value at risk," Statistics & Risk Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 38(1-2), pages 25-46, January.
    15. Liu, Peng & Wang, Ruodu & Wei, Linxiao, 2020. "Is the inf-convolution of law-invariant preferences law-invariant?," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 144-154.
    16. Steven Kou & Xianhua Peng, 2014. "On the Measurement of Economic Tail Risk," Papers 1401.4787, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2015.
    17. Silvana Pesenti & Qiuqi Wang & Ruodu Wang, 2020. "Optimizing distortion riskmetrics with distributional uncertainty," Papers 2011.04889, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2022.
    18. Qiuqi Wang & Ruodu Wang & Ricardas Zitikis, 2021. "Risk measures induced by efficient insurance contracts," Papers 2109.00314, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2021.
    19. Wang, Qiuqi & Wang, Ruodu & Zitikis, Ričardas, 2022. "Risk measures induced by efficient insurance contracts," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 56-65.
    20. Xia Han & Bin Wang & Ruodu Wang & Qinyu Wu, 2021. "Risk Concentration and the Mean-Expected Shortfall Criterion," Papers 2108.05066, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2022.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Scenarios; Risk measures; Basel Accords; Stress adjustment; Dependence adjustment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C69 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Other
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:finsto:v:25:y:2021:i:4:d:10.1007_s00780-021-00460-9. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.