IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/endesu/v27y2025i2d10.1007_s10668-023-03997-1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Resilience of rainfed agriculture in northern part of Cyprus: a comprehensive drought severity level impact analysis and adaptive strategies

Author

Listed:
  • Ahmad Haseeb Payab

    (Drexel University)

  • Umut Türker

    (Eastern Mediterranean University)

Abstract

Like many other Mediterranean countries, rainfed agriculture in the northern part of Cyprus faces heightened vulnerability due to the escalating brunt of climate change, particularly the incidence of drought. Recent instances of drought have significantly curtailed crop yields within rainfed agriculture, amplifying economic concerns. Consequently, the authorities have been compelled to increase imports to maintain a balance between supply and demand. In this comprehensive research, the Reconnaissance Drought Index has been employed to meticulously figure out and evaluate drought occurrences across diverse regions of Cyprus spanning from 1977 to 2013. To gauge the ramifications of drought severity levels, the Crop Simulation Model (CROPWAT) was employed. This model enabled the assessment of how drought affects the yields of rainfed wheat, barley, and olive crops. The study's findings are unequivocal in underscoring the deleterious after-effects of drought on rainfed crop production. The reductions due to droughts in the production of olive, barley, and wheat were stark, with average reductions of 49%, 28%, and 37%, respectively. As severity levels escalate, yield reductions become notably more pronounced. For wheat, the average yield reduction at extreme drought conditions was 44%, reducing to 28% and 38% for moderate and severe drought severity levels, respectively. Similarly, barley displayed reductions of 19%, 29%, and 35%, while olive crops exhibited yield reductions of 45%, 48%, and 54%. Furthermore, the study divulges that soil attributes, primarily the water-holding capacity, wield substantial influence in constraining crop yields during drought episodes. The analysis attests to a linear reduction in yields as soil water storage dwindles. Through comparisons with other studies particularly in the Mediterranean region, we established global relevance. Notably, the study extended beyond analysis, proposing co-creation and digital transformation as innovative strategies to mitigate drought impacts and align with sustainable development goals. This research exemplifies interdisciplinary work, informing policy decisions and enhancing agricultural resilience against climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Ahmad Haseeb Payab & Umut Türker, 2025. "Resilience of rainfed agriculture in northern part of Cyprus: a comprehensive drought severity level impact analysis and adaptive strategies," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 3033-3058, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:endesu:v:27:y:2025:i:2:d:10.1007_s10668-023-03997-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s10668-023-03997-1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10668-023-03997-1
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10668-023-03997-1?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dilayda Soylu Pekpostalci & Rifat Tur & Ali Danandeh Mehr & Mohammad Amin Vazifekhah Ghaffari & Dominika Dąbrowska & Vahid Nourani, 2023. "Drought Monitoring and Forecasting across Turkey: A Contemporary Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-23, March.
    2. Xiang, Keyu & Li, Yi & Horton, Robert & Feng, Hao, 2020. "Similarity and difference of potential evapotranspiration and reference crop evapotranspiration – a review," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    3. Bruno Basso & John Antle, 2020. "Digital agriculture to design sustainable agricultural systems," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 3(4), pages 254-256, April.
    4. Ahmad Haseeb Payab & Umut Türker, 2018. "Analyzing temporal–spatial characteristics of drought events in the northern part of Cyprus," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 20(4), pages 1553-1574, August.
    5. Yang, Chenyao & Fraga, Helder & Ieperen, Wim Van & Santos, João Andrade, 2017. "Assessment of irrigated maize yield response to climate change scenarios in Portugal," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 178-190.
    6. Alfons Weersink & Evan Fraser & David Pannell & Emily Duncan & Sarah Rotz, 2018. "Opportunities and Challenges for Big Data in Agricultural and Environmental Analysis," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 10(1), pages 19-37, October.
    7. Quiroga, Sonia & Iglesias, Ana, 2009. "A comparison of the climate risks of cereal, citrus, grapevine and olive production in Spain," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 101(1-2), pages 91-100, June.
    8. Dimitris Tigkas & Harris Vangelis & George Tsakiris, 2020. "Implementing Crop Evapotranspiration in RDI for Farm-Level Drought Evaluation and Adaptation under Climate Change Conditions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(14), pages 4329-4343, November.
    9. Sangam Shrestha & Vishnu Pandey & Chawalit Chanamai & Debapi Ghosh, 2013. "Green, Blue and Grey Water Footprints of Primary Crops Production in Nepal," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(15), pages 5223-5243, December.
    10. G. Tsakiris & D. Pangalou & H. Vangelis, 2007. "Regional Drought Assessment Based on the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI)," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 21(5), pages 821-833, May.
    11. Vengus Panhwar & Arjumand Zaidi & Asmat Ullah & Timothy Neal Edgar, 2021. "Impact of water sector interventions on economy, equity, and environment in the rainfed region of Punjab, Pakistan," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 2190-2203, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Laura Şmuleac & Ciprian Rujescu & Adrian Șmuleac & Florin Imbrea & Isidora Radulov & Dan Manea & Anișoara Ienciu & Tabita Adamov & Raul Pașcalău, 2020. "Impact of Climate Change in the Banat Plain, Western Romania, on the Accessibility of Water for Crop Production in Agriculture," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-24, September.
    2. Dilayda Soylu Pekpostalci & Rifat Tur & Ali Danandeh Mehr & Mohammad Amin Vazifekhah Ghaffari & Dominika Dąbrowska & Vahid Nourani, 2023. "Drought Monitoring and Forecasting across Turkey: A Contemporary Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-23, March.
    3. Farman Ali & Bing-Zhao Li & Zulfiqar Ali, 2021. "Strengthening Drought Monitoring Module by Ensembling Auxiliary Information Based Varying Estimators," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(10), pages 3235-3252, August.
    4. Abdol Rassoul Zarei & Mohammad Reza Mahmoudi, 2020. "Ability Assessment of the Stationary and Cyclostationary Time Series Models to Predict Drought Indices," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(15), pages 5009-5029, December.
    5. Beatrice Garske & Antonia Bau & Felix Ekardt, 2021. "Digitalization and AI in European Agriculture: A Strategy for Achieving Climate and Biodiversity Targets?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-21, April.
    6. Farman Ali & Zulfiqar Ali & Bing-Zhao Li & Sadia Qamar & Amna Nazeer & Saba Riaz & Muhammad Asif Khan & Rabia Fayyaz & Javeria Nawaz Abbasi, 2022. "Exploring Regional Profile of Drought History- a New Procedure to Characterize and Evaluate Multi-Scaler Drought Indices Under Spatial Poisson Log-Normal Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(9), pages 2989-3005, July.
    7. Ehlers, Melf-Hinrich & Finger, Robert & El Benni, Nadja & Gocht, Alexander & Sørensen, Claus Aage Grøn & Gusset, Markus & Pfeifer, Catherine & Poppe, Krijn & Regan, Áine & Rose, David Christian & Wolf, 2022. "Scenarios for European agricultural policymaking in the era of digitalisation," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    8. Ruperto Ortiz-Gómez & Roberto S. Flowers-Cano & Guillermo Medina-García, 2022. "Sensitivity of the RDI and SPEI Drought Indices to Different Models for Estimating Evapotranspiration Potential in Semiarid Regions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(7), pages 2471-2492, May.
    9. Robert Finger, 2023. "Digital innovations for sustainable and resilient agricultural systems," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 50(4), pages 1277-1309.
    10. Ingram, Julie & Maye, Damian & Bailye, Clive & Barnes, Andrew & Bear, Christopher & Bell, Matthew & Cutress, David & Davies, Lynfa & de Boon, Auvikki & Dinnie, Liz & Gairdner, Julian & Hafferty, Caitl, 2022. "What are the priority research questions for digital agriculture?," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    11. Siddhant Panigrahi & Vikas Kumar Vidyarthi, 2024. "Assessing the suitability of McKee et al. (1993) drought severity classification across India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 120(14), pages 13543-13572, November.
    12. Mohammad Tavosi & Mehdi Vafakhah & Hengameh Shekohideh & Seyed Hamidreza Sadeghi & Vahid Moosavi & Ziyan Zheng & Qing Yang, 2024. "Rainfall Extreme Indicators Trend and Meteorological Drought Changes Under Climate Change Scenarios," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 38(11), pages 4393-4413, September.
    13. Lioutas, Evagelos D. & Charatsari, Chrysanthi & De Rosa, Marcello, 2021. "Digitalization of agriculture: A way to solve the food problem or a trolley dilemma?," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    14. Subhadarsini Das & Jew Das & N. V. Umamahesh, 2023. "A Non-Stationary Based Approach to Understand the Propagation of Meteorological to Agricultural Droughts," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(6), pages 2483-2504, May.
    15. Abdol Rassoul Zarei & Mohammad Mehdi Moghimi & Elham Koohi, 2021. "Sensitivity Assessment to the Occurrence of Different Types of Droughts Using GIS and AHP Techniques," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(11), pages 3593-3615, September.
    16. Cameira, Maria do Rosário & Rodrigo, Isabel & Garção, Andreia & Neves, Manuela & Ferreira, Antónia & Paredes, Paula, 2024. "Linking participatory approach and rapid appraisal methods to select potential innovations in collective irrigation systems," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 299(C).
    17. Mohammad Ghabaei Sough & Hamid Zare Abyaneh & Abolfazl Mosaedi, 2018. "Assessing a Multivariate Approach Based on Scalogram Analysis for Agricultural Drought Monitoring," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(10), pages 3423-3440, August.
    18. Bachev, Hrabrin & Koteva, Nina & Ivanov, Bodjidar & Mitova, Dilyana & Boevski, Ivan & Marinov, Petar & Sarov, Angel & Kostenarov, Krassimir & Dimova, Nadejda & Soyanova, Natalia & Terziev, Dimitar, 2022. "Въпроси На Конкурентоспособността На Земеделските Стопанства На България [Issues of the competitiveness of the agricultural holdings of Bulgaria]," MPRA Paper 116065, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Basharat Ali & Peter Dahlhaus, 2022. "Roles of Selective Agriculture Practices in Sustainable Agricultural Performance: A Systematic Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-15, March.
    20. Dimitrios Myronidis & Konstantinos Ioannou & Dimitrios Fotakis & Gerald Dörflinger, 2018. "Streamflow and Hydrological Drought Trend Analysis and Forecasting in Cyprus," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(5), pages 1759-1776, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:endesu:v:27:y:2025:i:2:d:10.1007_s10668-023-03997-1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.