Assessing quality tourism development in China: an analysis based on the degree of mismatch and its influencing factors

The quality development of tourism is an important means of implementing China’s quality development strategy, meeting people’s aspirations for a better life and enhancing China’s tourism competitiveness. On the basis of defining the concept of high-quality tourism development, this paper constructs an evaluation system for high-quality tourism development that includes five dimensions: tourism economic scale, tourism development speed, tourism supply quality, tourism industry structure and tourism industry efficiency. Using the entropy value method, multi-indicator comprehensive index method and health distance model, we measure the level of high-quality tourism development and its mismatch in 30 Chinese provinces (municipalities and regions) from 2010 to 2019, and analyze the factors affecting high-quality tourism development in China. The findings show that: (1) the overall level of quality development in China’s tourism industry is not high, with a low degree of mismatch dominating, and a trend from mismatch to match. The high-quality development of the national tourism industry is mainly due to the high quality of tourism supply and the comprehensive benefits of tourism. The role of tourism industry structure in promoting high-quality tourism development in China has not yet been fully exploited. (2) The four major regions of China have seen high-quality tourism development, with the eastern region generally outperforming the central, western and northeastern regions. The gap between the four regions has narrowed, but the performance is unstable. It is difficult to change the pattern of quality tourism development in the four regions in the short term. (3) The ranking of each province in terms of the level of quality tourism development remains relatively stable, but the average level varies considerably. Spatial differentiation within the four regions is evident, most notably in the east. (4) Policymakers should focus their policies on optimizing the structure of the tourism industry, implementing differentiated development strategies and enhancing the capacity for coordinated regional development, with a focus on the quality of tourism supply and the overall benefits of tourism in the western region.