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Japan’s output gap estimation and ℓ 1 trend filtering

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  • Hiroshi Yamada
  • Lan Jin

Abstract

This paper estimates Japan’s output gap using the recently developed ℓ 1 trend filter, which is an alternative to the popular Hodrick–Prescott (HP) filter. This new filter provides a piecewise linear trend line, which means it possibly provides better output gap estimates than the HP filter does for an economy such as Japan that has experienced some structural breaks. Copyright Springer-Verlag 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Hiroshi Yamada & Lan Jin, 2013. "Japan’s output gap estimation and ℓ 1 trend filtering," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 81-88, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:45:y:2013:i:1:p:81-88
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-012-0625-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    2. Fang, WenShwo & Miller, Stephen M., 2009. "Modeling the volatility of real GDP growth: The case of Japan revisited," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 312-324, August.
    3. Rappoport, Peter & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1989. "Segmented Trends and Non-stationary Time Series," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(395), pages 168-177, Supplemen.
    4. Ms. Sweta Chaman Saxena & Ms. Valerie Cerra, 2000. "Alternative Methods of Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap: An Application to Sweden," IMF Working Papers 2000/059, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Maravall, A. & del Rio, A., 2007. "Temporal aggregation, systematic sampling, and the Hodrick-Prescott filter," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 975-998, October.
    6. Sato, Kazuo, 2002. "From fast to last: the Japanese economy in the 1990s," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 213-235.
    7. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    8. Hiroshi Yamada, 2012. "A Note on Band-Pass Filters Based on the Hodrick-Prescott Filter and the OECD System of Composite Leading Indicators," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2011(2), pages 105-109.
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    Cited by:

    1. Winkelried, Diego, 2016. "Piecewise linear trends and cycles in primary commodity prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 196-213.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Output gap; ℓ 1 trend filter; Hodrick–Prescott filter; Structural break; Lasso; E32; C22;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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