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Marriage Duration and Divorce: The Seven-Year Itch or a Lifelong Itch?

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  • Hill Kulu

Abstract

Previous studies have shown that the risk of divorce is low during the first months of marriage; it then increases, reaches a maximum, and thereafter begins to decline. Some researchers consider this pattern consistent with the notion of a “seven-year itch,” while others argue that the rising-falling pattern of divorce risk is a consequence of misspecification of longitudinal models because of omitted covariates or unobserved heterogeneity. The aim of this study is to investigate the causes of the rising-falling pattern of divorce risk. Using register data from Finland and applying multilevel hazard models, the analysis supports the rising-falling pattern of divorce by marriage duration: the risk of marital dissolution increases, reaches its peak, and then gradually declines. This pattern persists when I control for the sociodemographic characteristics of women and their partners. The inclusion of unobserved heterogeneity in the model leads to some changes in the shape of the baseline risk; however, the rising-falling pattern of the divorce risk persists. Copyright Population Association of America 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Hill Kulu, 2014. "Marriage Duration and Divorce: The Seven-Year Itch or a Lifelong Itch?," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 51(3), pages 881-893, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:demogr:v:51:y:2014:i:3:p:881-893
    DOI: 10.1007/s13524-013-0278-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Giammarco Alderotti & Cecilia Tomassini & Daniele Vignoli, 2020. "Antecedents of 'Grey Divorces' in Europe: The Role of Children and Grandchildren," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2020_08, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
    4. Venla Berg & Anneli Miettinen & Markus Jokela & Anna Rotkirch, 2020. "Shorter birth intervals between siblings are associated with increased risk of parental divorce," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(1), pages 1-17, January.
    5. David M. Wright & Michael Rosato & Dermot O’Reilly, 2017. "Influence of Heterogamy by Religion on Risk of Marital Dissolution: A Cohort Study of 20,000 Couples," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 33(1), pages 87-107, February.
    6. André Grow & Jan Van Bavel, 2015. "Assortative Mating and the Reversal of Gender Inequality in Education in Europe: An Agent-Based Model," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(6), pages 1-24, June.
    7. Giammarco Alderotti & Cecilia Tomassini & Daniele Vignoli, 2022. "‘Silver splits’ in Europe: The role of grandchildren and other correlates," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 46(21), pages 619-652.

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