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Searching for explanations: testing social scientific methods in synthetic ground-truthed worlds

Author

Listed:
  • Aurora C. Schmidt

    (Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory (JHU/APL))

  • Christopher J. Cameron

    (Cornell University)

  • Corey Lowman

    (Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory (JHU/APL))

  • Joshua Brulé

    (Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory (JHU/APL))

  • Amruta J. Deshpande

    (Graphika, Inc.)

  • Seyyed A. Fatemi

    (University of Hawaii)

  • Vladimir Barash

    (Graphika, Inc.)

  • Ariel M. Greenberg

    (Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory (JHU/APL))

  • Cash J. Costello

    (Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory (JHU/APL))

  • Eli S. Sherman

    (Johns Hopkins University)

  • Rohit Bhattacharya

    (Johns Hopkins University)

  • Liz McQuillan

    (Graphika, Inc.)

  • Alexander Perrone

    (Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory (JHU/APL))

  • Yanni A. Kouskoulas

    (Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory (JHU/APL))

  • Clay Fink

    (Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory (JHU/APL))

  • June Zhang

    (University of Hawaii)

  • Ilya Shpitser

    (Johns Hopkins University)

  • Michael W. Macy

    (Cornell University)

Abstract

A scientific model’s usefulness relies on its ability to explain phenomena, predict how such phenomena will be impacted by future interventions, and prescribe actions to achieve desired outcomes. We study methods for learning causal models that explain the behaviors of simulated “human” populations. Through the Ground Truth project, we solved a series of Challenges where our explanations, predictions and prescriptions were scored against ground truth information. We describe the processes that emerged for applying causal discovery, network analysis, agent-based modeling and other analytical methods to inform solutions to Challenge tasks. We present our team’s overall performance results on these Challenges and discuss implications for future efforts to validate social scientific research using simulation-based challenges.

Suggested Citation

  • Aurora C. Schmidt & Christopher J. Cameron & Corey Lowman & Joshua Brulé & Amruta J. Deshpande & Seyyed A. Fatemi & Vladimir Barash & Ariel M. Greenberg & Cash J. Costello & Eli S. Sherman & Rohit Bha, 2023. "Searching for explanations: testing social scientific methods in synthetic ground-truthed worlds," Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 156-187, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:comaot:v:29:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1007_s10588-021-09353-w
    DOI: 10.1007/s10588-021-09353-w
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tikka, Santtu & Karvanen, Juha, 2017. "Identifying Causal Effects with the R Package causaleffect," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 76(i12).
    2. Ahmed Laatabi & Nicolas Marilleau & Tri Nguyen-Huu & Hassan Hbid & Mohamed Ait Babram, 2018. "ODD+2D: An ODD Based Protocol for Mapping Data to Empirical ABMs," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 21(2), pages 1-9.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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