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Recent changes in the rain regime over the Mediterranean climate region of Israel

Author

Listed:
  • Ron Drori

    (The Hebrew University of Jerusalem)

  • Baruch Ziv

    (The Hebrew University of Jerusalem
    The Open University of Israel)

  • Hadas Saaroni

    (Tel-Aviv University)

  • Adi Etkin

    (Tel-Aviv University)

  • Efrat Sheffer

    (The Hebrew University of Jerusalem)

Abstract

Previous observational analyses have shown a declining rainfall trend over Israel, mostly statistically insignificant. The current study, for the period 1975–2020, undermines these findings, and the alarming future projections, and elaborates other ingredients of the rain regime. No trend is found for the annual rainfall, reflecting a balance between a negative trend in the number of rainy days and a positive trend in the daily rainfall intensity, both on the order of 2.0%/decade. In the mid-winter, the rainfall and the daily intensity increased, while both declined in the autumn and spring, implying a contraction of the rainy season. The time span between accumulation of 10% and 90% of the annual rainfall, being 112 days on the average, shortened by 7 days during the study period. This is also expressed by an increase of the Seasonality Index, indicating that the regional climate is shifting from “markedly seasonal with a long dry season” to “most rain in ≤3 months.” The intra-seasonal course of the rainfall trend corresponds to that of the occurrence and intensity of the Cyprus Lows and the Mediterranean Oscillation. The contraction of the rainy season and the increase in the daily intensity have far-reaching environmental impacts in this vulnerable region.

Suggested Citation

  • Ron Drori & Baruch Ziv & Hadas Saaroni & Adi Etkin & Efrat Sheffer, 2021. "Recent changes in the rain regime over the Mediterranean climate region of Israel," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 167(1), pages 1-21, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:167:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-021-03161-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03161-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. J. Lelieveld & P. Hadjinicolaou & E. Kostopoulou & J. Chenoweth & M. Maayar & C. Giannakopoulos & C. Hannides & M. Lange & M. Tanarhte & E. Tyrlis & E. Xoplaki, 2012. "Climate change and impacts in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 114(3), pages 667-687, October.
    2. Daniel R. Schlaepfer & John B. Bradford & William K. Lauenroth & Seth M. Munson & Britta Tietjen & Sonia A. Hall & Scott D. Wilson & Michael C. Duniway & Gensuo Jia & David A. Pyke & Ariuntsetseg Lkha, 2017. "Climate change reduces extent of temperate drylands and intensifies drought in deep soils," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 1-9, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ariel Mordechai Meroz & Avshalom Babad & Noam Levin, 2024. "Identifying the Climatic and Anthropogenic Impact on Vegetation Surrounding the Natural Springs of the Arava Valley Using Remote Sensing Methods," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-24, March.
    2. Elan J. Levy & Hubert B. Vonhof & Miryam Bar-Matthews & Alfredo Martínez-García & Avner Ayalon & Alan Matthews & Vered Silverman & Shira Raveh-Rubin & Tami Zilberman & Gal Yasur & Mareike Schmitt & Ge, 2023. "Weakened AMOC related to cooling and atmospheric circulation shifts in the last interglacial Eastern Mediterranean," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.

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