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Climate change impacts on groundwater storage in the Central Valley, California

Author

Listed:
  • Sarfaraz Alam

    (University of California)

  • Mekonnen Gebremichael

    (University of California)

  • Ruopu Li

    (Southern Illinois University-Carbondale)

  • Jeff Dozier

    (University of California)

  • Dennis P. Lettenmaier

    (University of California)

Abstract

Groundwater plays a critical supporting role in agricultural production in the California Central Valley (CV). Recent prolonged droughts (notably 2007–2009 and 2012–2016) caused dramatic depletion of groundwater, indicating the susceptibility of the CV’s water supply to climate change. To assess the impact of climate change on groundwater storage in the CV, we combined integrated surface water and groundwater models with climate projections from 20 global climate models and thereby explore the vulnerability of CV groundwater under two climate scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. We found that groundwater has been declining over the past decades (3 km3/year on average during 1950–2009). In the absence of future mitigating measures, this decline will continue, but at a higher rate due to climate change (31% and 39% increase in loss rate under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The greatest loss (more than 80% of the total) will occur in the semi-arid southern Tulare region. We performed computational experiments to quantify the relative contribution of future crop water use and headwater inflows to total groundwater storage change. Our results show that, without management changes, continuing declines in future groundwater storage will mainly be attributable to ongoing overuse of groundwater. However, future changes in the seasonality of streamflow into the CV, (small) changes in annual inflows, and increased crop water use in a warmer climate will lead to 40–70% more annual groundwater losses than the current annual average, up to approximately 5 km3/year.

Suggested Citation

  • Sarfaraz Alam & Mekonnen Gebremichael & Ruopu Li & Jeff Dozier & Dennis P. Lettenmaier, 2019. "Climate change impacts on groundwater storage in the Central Valley, California," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 157(3), pages 387-406, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:157:y:2019:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-019-02585-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-019-02585-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. J. S. Famiglietti, 2014. "The global groundwater crisis," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 4(11), pages 945-948, November.
    2. Luis Garrote & Ana Iglesias & Alfredo Granados & Luis Mediero & Francisco Martin-Carrasco, 2015. "Quantitative Assessment of Climate Change Vulnerability of Irrigation Demands in Mediterranean Europe," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(2), pages 325-338, January.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Bali, Khaled M. & Mohamed, Abdelmoneim Zakaria & Begna, Sultan & Wang, Dong & Putnam, Daniel & Dahlke, Helen E. & Eltarabily, Mohamed Galal, 2023. "The use of HYDRUS-2D to simulate intermittent Agricultural Managed Aquifer Recharge (Ag-MAR) in Alfalfa in the San Joaquin Valley," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 282(C).
    3. Geeta G. Persad & Daniel L. Swain & Claire Kouba & J. Pablo Ortiz-Partida, 2020. "Inter-model agreement on projected shifts in California hydroclimate characteristics critical to water management," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(3), pages 1493-1513, October.

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